GREY:GRFJF - Post by User
Comment by
nwtfeon Jan 12, 2008 12:16am
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Post# 14191991
RE: Trading at less than half NAV now?
RE: Trading at less than half NAV now?Hey Babe,
My apologies. I didn't realize that the presentation had been updated in December. I'm sure that $416 was quoted in the previous presentation as total cost (i.e. Cost of Sales, all Royalties & Capital Costs). I wouldn't be so sure, except that I made a point of noting it since it is not cheap (but by no means overly expensive either).
Calculating NAV is a bit of a tricky matter. Discounting future earnings is essential in order to give a true NAV. Then the question becomes what discount rate to use. Personally, I prefer to look at WGI in terms of Earnings and Cash Flow potential.
Here is a sample of what I posted many moons ago:
Production Hedged
66 000 Oz @ $385 profit ($801 - $416 Total Cost)
Production Non-Hedged
100 000 Oz @ $385 profit (Assume Avg Oz of G at $801 - $416 Total Cost)
Total Net Income of $63 910 000
Total Shares, Warrants, Options Approx 143 Million
Total EPS fully Diluted $0.447
Today $801 looks like a bit of a conservative estimate, but it seemed aggressive back then. Plug in any POG you like and then find an appropriate PE multiple.
IMO WGI is a good investment. Balance sheet is good. Production is starting and resources should be proven up. Great management and a rising POG. Not many of the Juniors have moved yet. Maybe a sign that the market isn't yet convinced that the rise in gold price is for real. It will be soon!