This is gonna be Big......
Research shows the Alzheimers drug Market is only growing larger and larger. Recall the Cowen & Co. projections last year for a Drug that ameliorates the disease like AZD-103 does. Huge upside market wise. Heres a few quotes from a NEW RESEARCH REPORT dated 11/29/2007 issued for Wyeth by Sanford Bernstein.
Sanford Bernstein Research Report......"In Alzheimer's disease today there are only marginally effective palliative therapies such as Aricept, Exelon, Reminyl, and Namenda. These agents only delay symptom progression (and modestly at that) without altering the underlying course of the disease. That said, these therapies generate annual sales of around $3 billion worldwide, a testament to the size of the market."
"The total prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in developed markets including the U.S., Europe, and Japan is 12 million patients strong, with roughly 60% of this population having mild-to-moderate disease. Even if we assume an exceedingly low annual treatment price of $10,000 in the U.S. and $7,500 in ex-U.S. markets, the TARGET MARKET is a staggering $60 billion. If a disease modifying drug like bapieuzumab were to be priced at a more normal biologic price, the total size of the market could be triple this amount (thats $180 Billion)......If WYE penetrates just 25% of the market, total opportunity is worth well over $15 billion."
That would be $45 Billion if priced higher as suggested in the Report but I think that with such a large large pool of patients to sell to that they might just go with a much lower annual price. Elan CEO is commited to a lower priced Alzheimers treatment...... It would be more in the range for AZD-103/ELND005 like $3600-$4800/year or about a $30 Billion Market. AZD-103 is not expensive to manufacture at all and some analysts are using similar figures. It is reported by RBC that Mgnt. has said that AZD-103/ELND005 will cost about $100 in materials to produce 1 Kg. of cGMP of the Drug.
The MCI Market is calculated at being 3-4 times as large as Alzheimers. Doesn't take a scientific calculator to figure out that equation.....for Off-Label use!!