RE: Gold tree is shaking violentlyThe stocks that have not decoupled from gold are the seniors. They are seeing all time highs in line with the POG. I held Kinross and sold a couple weeks ago, not because I thought it was overvalued but because it was overvalued compared to the juniors and mid tier producers. The valuations are being driven up by large investors who, because of their size and perhaps because of their newness to the gold stock sector gravitate toward the big names. The smaller producers have much more attractive valuations and are bound to start outperforming the seniors and "recoupling" with gold. I agree with what another poster mentioned about the distinction between producers and explorers. In this environment, the safer bet is to own companies who will not have to rely on new investment to further their development. The credit markets are horrible and the risk is that they could get much worse. It would be a shame to hold a promising development play with a great property and watch it get left behind as gold/silver move up because it couldn't get the required funding.
I moved out of these development plays entirely after the August meltdown and concentrated on companies with growing production or those about to go into production. Eg. WGI, HRG, FR, MFL, SGR, JAG. While Silvercorp does not have a lot of growth in its immediate future, I think the stock can go well past 12.50 for a number of reasons:
1) there is plenty of room to increase the dividend
2) the market cap is right around that threshold where those aforementioned large investors would feel comfortable getting in. This could really drive up the valuation as has occured in the senior golds
3) I think silver can get into the low 20's this year and possibly even this spring. A clear break from its mid teens consolidation (now almost 2 years old) could attract some serious speculative activity in silver. If this gets going, the silver shares will go ballistic, and the market will be drawn first to the "go to" names of which I think SVM is one.
4) The Hong Kong listing, which sounds as though it should happen by as early as this summer, could give SVM a valuation that is roughly double what we have now, and that's without any improvement in the POS or silver stock valuations
I think a double from this point is not out of the question this year and higher would not surprise me as I think the ingredients are there for gold and silver shares to go parabolic.