Pinetree''s Q4 ''07 and Q1 thus far...I put this up on the CCJ board over on Yahoo (where I usually post) but thought some here might find it useful/interesting as well...
I used a nifty little excel program I devised to get an idea of Pinetree Q4 results - nowhere NEAR as bad as I would have imagined...
I was able to track 90 of Pinetree's disclosed investments from 9/30 - 12/31
Average decline was actually only -3.89%
However, declines in larger holdings were more substantial -here is the performance of their top 10 investments ranked from 9/30 Fair Value for the period...
Mega Uranium Ltd. -28.8%
Noront Resources Ltd. -1.0%
Dejour Enterprises Ltd. -30.6%
East Asia Minerals Corp. -36.9%
Solitario Resources Corp. 9.3%
Gold Eagle Mines Ltd. 29.7%
Bayswater Uranium Corp. -13.7%
Caledonia Mining Corporation -21.4%
Queenston Mining Inc. 51.5%
Bolero Resources Corp. -45.0%
Average decline there ~8.6%
Assuming the total Fair Value of a Pinetree investment changed by the same percentage as the common shares on that investment over the quarter, from what I can gather it appears the Fair Value of Pinetree's total portfolio declined -9.18% over Q4 (this assumes this decline applied to their non-disclosed investments along with those disclosed -- though privately held -- positions).
This is also ceteris paribus - that is, assuming no transactions occured during the quarter either....
Considering that the basic NAV per share was $4.05 at 9/30, I suspect Q4 NAV per share will be around ~$3.68 per share.
Note this also assumes no overhead/administration costs, nor does it assign ANY value to out of the money warrants/options that Pinetree holds... (in that management continues along with this MORONIC valuation policy).
Unfortunately for longs, Pinetree's Q1 this year is considerably worse thus far.
Going back to 9/30 the average decline has been around
-18.4% in those holdings.
While the top 10 positions have declined merely -11.29% on average, Pinetree's largest holding (or should I say, what WAS their largest holding) has declined -45.3% (way to go JD!)
Using the same valuation method as the previous post, the Fair Value of Pinetree's portfolio appears to have declined -20.89% from 9/30 up to today's closing bid prices.
Assuming that basic NAV per share has declined the same amount suggests Pinetree's current NAV is ~$3.21 - again, applying the same methods as the prior post.
Considering that they ascribe NO value to their options/warrants and - assuming Mega shows at least SOME sign of life going forward - I actually think Pinetree remains a considerable bargain here.
Personally, I will continue holding my warrants (currently +13% there... lol) - and may look to add if it declines further.