AOS-Strong Buy-Very compeling value summary!Just got off the phone with management- as at Feb.15/08
AOS- Approx. 20 million in cash / 62 million shares outstanding = .32cents per share cash value.
AOS approx. 100 BOE per day, conventional production, productive capability, 100 BOE X 60000 a flowing barrel, 8 year RLI is equal to 6 million = .10 CENTS per share value.
equals .42 cents of value for cash and conventional assests.
Oilsands valuation 5 billion OBIP huge resource base, accretive to many other oilsands acquirers.
200 million barrels of contingent resource X .50 cents per barrel = 100 million dollars
Cash at 20,000,000 plus 5,000,000 conventional production plus 100,000,000 net risked oilsands reserve value is equal to AOS value estimate of 125,000,000 divided by 62,000,000 shares outstanding = based on this estimate AOS should be valued at $2.01 per share value.
$2.01 vs yesterdays close of .76 cents represents 164% potential upside value that should be reflected in the share price.
AOS is temporarily, inefficiently mispriced in the market. I anticipate that there is a very good probability that AOS will move materially closer to this valuation estimate over the next two quarters.
This excludes any value for a very prospective large African concession, which could be valued anywheren from 5 to 50 million dollars. My sense is management is working hard to surface value for shareholders in the share price in the coming quarters.
One final point,I am increasingly convinced and will continue to add to my personal share position and my funds holdings subject to liquidity on th open market because if Wellington or Fidelity ie: the Boston Fund, who are very, very large, sophisticated oilsands investors place 8 million dollars in AOS at .93 cents, AOS represents tremendous value and upside at current levels. Aos went from .20 cents to 2.40 in first six months of 2007 and was the top performing JR oil and gas stock over that period of time. The first half of 2008, could represent enormous share value appreciation. STRONG BUY AOS
Saskatoonboy