Connacher Oil & Gas Ltd CLLZF

RE: Spectacular #''s still on the way!2violin

[aboutoil]

Hi Violin. Accidentally I see your post in the see of garbage and euphoria on this board. I do not want to spoil the party. The POD1 production # are very good. I am more cautious here because the reservoir being heated by 5 months continuously with minimal bitumen flow (bad weather). Most of the well pairs are converted just recently so they are benefiting form the excess of bitumen accumulated over the time. I hope the can sustain the daily production on this level on the long term. About your numbers or my numbers which nobody cares about. (CLL at this point is all about hype). Your fatal mistake is to use the company slide show netbacks and ignoring management disclaimer including the fact that they talk about the Bitumen Wellhead Netback. Another major mistake you make is that you apply the netbacks to partial annual production. For example if the average 2008 production will be 6500bb/d the average 2008 expense(cost) you have to take to consideration is steam (NG) being delivered to all wells based on 10,000bbl/d production(about 1mcf of Ng X 10,000 BBL on the annual bases and SOR about 4.6). Last point is that you can not apply integrated approach to calculating the free cash flow. It will always lead you to wrong conclusions. Do what the CLL management is doing in the financial statements. Not what they do on the slide show (including the disclaimer). My detail numbers are on the AG O R A COM side. PS. In your last post you are using the 7500bbl/d(500 for POD1 and 2500 for LUKE) multiply by the netbacks. Luke netbacks are different then POD1 netbacks. Netbaks are not the money which you can deposit to the bank or pay the interest on the loan or 100M convertible debenture as you suggest. How or who do you think is paying for all winter drilling CAPEX including $40M For LUKU (to maintain pre acquisition production) and $10M for Montana Refinery improvement to meet the environmental requirements in 2008.How about income taxes?($33M in 2007). I know is to long. Average poster reader attention is 10 second. Sorry I could not help. On the positive not the FEB 26 bitumen price is in all time high at$67. 985kg/m3 3.5% Sulphur Bitumen@Hardisty Feb26 price $67. Sorry I can not be able to see your repay. It is skiing time tomorrow and tennis tournament on Saturday. JUREK