RE: Couldn''''t agree more....repurchase lowerThe time to get out of the stock would have been at ~40-42.5. After that second leg up it broke the last resistance around 42.5, or at 37.5 (previous resistance level back in November).
Resistance now is around high 26's low 27's from the last break out.
We've had accumulation from late jan to mid feb from ~ 27 - 35, then we got taken down quickly. That article about the shares being being shifted by the major holder was with no question timed. Just look at the chaikin money flow before that new release. Accumulation, accumulation, accumulation new release then the CMF went back to zero. Think a short play was happening here. Calculated hedge fund play??? (who knows)
Also the RSI has not dropped below 30 since this stock IPO'd so I don't see much down side here. Of course the Market could tank and this could drop to the low 20's but that's the case with any stock out there.
My initial buy was at $37 (100 shares) as $35 was the resistance back in Novemeber (after missing the IPO run-up). Why I didn't sell when it broke resistance at ~42.5 and went to 50 I don't know but I'm not really a trader although by the charts that was obviously a clear trade (I'll learn next time...kicking myself here). Then we went through that doomsday period in january where you'd think the world was ending as the dow would rally 200 points but drop 300 in the same day.
Accumulation hit after the fed .75 cut and then that story about the shifting of funds wacked this back down.
The "R" word is being played around in the media too much. You'll see 10 bad stories before you ever see a positive story. Of course the same is true on the upside, so I take what I hear on CNBC and other stations with a huge grain of salt. On a side note, please tell me how oil is above $100 if the economy is in a horrible recessionary state. I can justify the price of gold being where it is, but oil... makes me wonder....
I have no crystal ball but I don't see a test of the $18 IPO price (barring some horrible earnings release). And if I'm wrong, well I'll just make sure I learn from this scenario for the next time.