RE: Now, check how many shares the institutionalsHey Buffet,
I hope you are right on the short, medium and long term share price. I own a fair chunk and have for a while and will continue to hold.
What it has going for it right now is:
1. Production - I used 200 tons/day in my calcs but if they can get to 250 right away with the existing plant that would be upside, and it looks like they are upgrading the plant with the 1.5 mill PP they are doing, so we could see opportunity to get to 400 tons/day which would be amazing for cashflow.
2. High cashflow - you say 18 mill, i would be a little more conservative ie. i'd say 15 but again it depends on gold price and actual amount of gold/silve oz/ton they get
I used 0.23/11 oz/ton in my estimate and at $800/$14 pricing came up with around 12 mill cashflow, so we'll see soon with dore/financial results.
I'm real bullish on gold so i think we could see cashflow to the upside as you say but again depends on ore quality imo.
3. No debt - this is good
Anything over say $6 SP right now seems a stretch unless we see the following:
1. A more accurate understanding of what the real reserves are and i doube we'll see much on this front given i'm not sure doing a 43-101 is going to offer us anything given the nature of the deposit.
2. More drilling - we need to find more reserves. From what i remember I think there may be around 4-5 years worth, and this depends on what production rate the plant will run at. I think a good find could really propel this stock higher. We need to keep in mind though that any cashflow calcs likely don't include any drilling program costs.
I love this story. Watching Mel achieve this is a great accomplishment for him personally and I love to be part of someone achieving their goals. This guy is real nuts and bolts.
Go Mel.