RE: Wow..."I will base any decisions going forward on production numbers for Feb-Apr timeframe. My target for this year is 75 cents. At 900 gold. On a conservative PE and if production numbers are close to forcaste."
He's jaded - lost a lot on the runnup that he never recouped due to the company's broken hopes/estimates. Can't blame him - it does appear that this outfit has done more dreaming than what's normally expected of a penny stock...
With respect to your earnings based valuation, Feb-Apr is simply way off base. Vat 2 doesn't even complete leeching until early april and that is the FIRST full scale production run.
With respect to your mthod of valuing a gold play, you're better off using a multiple of cash flow somewhat less than that of the more respectable Au producers. Discount that because of the poor 43-101 (un updated resource estimate to support the CEO's 10-year claim has not been published yet). Having said the negatives, you also need to consider growth. This company has outstanding growth potential - Imwauna alone will increase production from 35K Oz to over 100K Oz without even including Weioko's output sometime in 2010.