RE: PLS looks bad...HBK & ABM will eat these guysI'm not sure that Polaris looks that bad?
Caveat - Haven't looked into this in too much detail as yet, but..
They are operating, and have buyers for the product..
Reported revenue for 2007 was $15.5 million (not sure if the $1.4m interest received is counted as revenue?), and the company states that it sold 1.15 million tons in 2007
So it appears that Polaris is selling its aggregate for an average of $13/ton
The non cash adjustments (one time?) had an impact, and will not likely occur again - although its certain that there will be other non cash adjustments. But 2007 is the first year of operation, first years are always fraught with startup issues..and 2008 will be a better year.
This year they report shipping 511,000 tons in Q1(?), and appear to be on target for approx 3 milion tons production in 2008. 3 million tons at 13/ton is a revenue of $39 million - better than HBK's stated 2007 estimate for its own 2008 production, they also state that they are booking additional shipping with CSL into 2010. And they now have inventory on hand, too..
Overall, it appears to be a pretty encouraging situation for anyone invested in a rock pit on the BC coast..if you have the patience to wait it out.
Any experts who can do a better 'off the cuff' analysis, please weigh in here.