repost comments- No resource estimates have been made, but given the size of the
exploitable area, the thickness of the shale member and its petroleum-
generating capacity, the in place potential resource could be very
large and comparable to the underlying Platform Carbonate play which
remains the prime target of the 2K-39 well.
This reiterates that the underlying carbonate is STILL the main target. While the reference to the resource potential of the GreenPoint shales is significant, it must be understood that it can also be read as "this is a wild a$$ guess" at this time. A nice to have and even nicer to see, but it will require further analysis, testing and evaluation.>>
"We are excited by the evidence in this well which shows the potential fora major new play type in western Newfoundland, culminating in Port au Port Bay and vicinity," said Steven Millan, CEO of Canadian Imperial."The Shoal Point group will continue to gather information from the well and develop ideas on the play in consultation with experts specializing in this type of play. In the meantime, however, drilling continues towards the primary target in the well, the carbonates of the St. George's Group. The drilling depth today is 2125 m and we estimate that the drill will start penetrating the primary target zones around the middle of May."
Note the reference to starting to penetrate the primary zone in mid-May. They will most likely obtain some log data and possible testing (DST's, etc) from the current depths of the well, then set and cement in intermediate casing before drilling into the primary target. Once they enter the main target, drill cuttings may show some indications of oil, they may again have oil shows, but it is highly unlikely and even more undesirable to see a flare or any indication of hydrocarbons of significant quantities coming to surface. In the real world, this would be referred to as a blowout unless they are underbalanced drilling, which no reference has ever been made to. Inflow from the main target will be controlled by the weight of the drilling mud, and it is designed to hold back the formation pressure and hence hold back any hydrocarbons from entering the well bore. Once they reach their targeted depth, or drill through this zone, they would run additional tests and logs to further evaluate what they have. Only when they can be assured of maintaining well control would they deliberately allow flow to surface. Anything short of this is in my opinion irresponsible and could have drastic environmental effects given the proximity to water. By the way, the oil industry stopped the practice of allowing uncontrolled flows of oil a long time ago. If you want to see some fairly dramatic pictures of this practice, Google Turner Valley or look through some old archive photos from the Glenmore Museum. I was talking to an old-timer not so long ago who said an entire section of land he once owned was covered in oil when 3 wells blew out near the same time.