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Cline Mining Corporation T.CMK



TSX:CMK - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by Mine_Professoron May 15, 2008 3:41pm
365 Views
Post# 15078568

Cline Cambrian Merger Numbers

Cline Cambrian Merger Numbers

The following are approximate numbers for the purpose of trying to get a ball park figure to get an approximate valuation on a Cline & Cambrian merger on a 1 for 1 basis.

You will need to read and fully understand my Hypotheses on a Cline Cambrian merger.
Link at bottom of page.

Most importantly this valuation can be used as a benchmark to determine what other companies like Teck or Sherrit would have to pay to trump Cambrian.

.......................................................................................................................................................................................

Cline & Cambrian Shares Out

Cline = 93 Mil FD Shares out

Cambrian = 98 Mil FD

Cline & Cambrian Combined = (CC) = 200 Mil FD

………………………………………......................................................................................................................

Value of WTN Now 2008

WTN Market Cap = $1.5 Billion on 4 Mil Ton coal production

Cline Cambrian own 60% WTN = $900 Mil = $4.5 per CC share


Assumption- Cline Cambrian transfers all Cline Canadian coal properties for 60% consolidated ownership. Asset increase benefits WTN > share dilution, holding the present day value equation true and very conservative.
………………………………………………………………………………………..

Value Coal International After Buying New Elk

Coal International (CLN) shares out now 100 million (Now Cambrian owns 30 million CLN)

Coal International Issues 120 Mil shares for New Elk = 220 Mil shares FD

Cline Cambrian owns 150 Mil or 68%

Assume New Elk goes into production ramping up from 2 to 4 MTons.

Coal International now produces from 2 coal mines.

Lets assume this combination has the same value as WTN in market value.

Lets assume Cline Cambrian owns 60% after New Elk Financing

CLN Market Cap = $1.5 Billion on 4 Mil Ton coal production

Cline Cambrian own 60% CLN = $900 Mil = $4.5 per CC share

…………………………………………………………………………………….

Total Value of 60% Ownership WTN & CLN

Cline Cambrian own 60% WTN = $900 Mil = $4.5 per CC share

Cline Cambrian own 60% CLN = $900 Mil = $4.5 per CC share

Total = $9 per share on amalgamation with further support from Iron project.

..........................................................................................................................................

Value WTN & CLN 2011

Fording FDG = 14 Mtons & Mcap $10 Billion.

WTN = 8Mtons & CLN = 6Mtons Total = 14 Mtons

The Mcap of both companies should = Fording = $10 Billion

Cline Cambrian = 60% of $10 Billion = $6 Billion. = $30 per Cline Cambrian share.

…………………………………………………………………………………………

On top of the above Cline would also have its Iron, Uranium and Gold projects

The synergies are so great and price gains so good for insiders I am sure they will merge.

No insider is going to sell at $4 per share when they can get above $30 in 2011.

Clines Iron project is better then its coal projects.

The numbers show $30 dollars per share if they merge. Is very is very conservative looking out to 2011, because it does not include the iron project.


So my market call for $7 on merger and $10 after that is very low .

Link

Profs Cambrian Merge Hypothesis

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