Adanac Molybdenum Corporation AUAYF

RE: What It Beez

[grumpymonkey007]

"I don't believe a dependance on higher output is viable , at least for a long time."

So just to return to the back of a napkin for a barometric reading:

Let's say final dilution takes us to 400M shares.
At a cost of $10 a pound
A per pound price of $35
Production of 14M lbs annually
I, T, D approx 25%

Gives us a cash flow of 245MM
An EPS of 0.61
At a  FWD PE of 8 that gives us a SP of $4.88 in 2010
At a 10xCF that gives us a SP of $6 later 2010

If dilution is closer to 500M shares then
The EPS becomes 0.49
The 8x FWD PE drops to $3.9 in 2010
The 10xCF drops to $4.9 later 2010

The bridge warrants with an exercise price of 0.56 pretty much pull down our ceiling/enable shorting with a guaranteed minimum 20% return.  I should have taken 0.9 last week - there are too many juniors miners right now entering production of just turned positive on earnings.

Only got myself to blame for this one :(