RE: Reversal Appears ImminentI agree, this downtrend is an opportunity, so I added to my holding.
1. Unlike silicon, and cell producers, their capital efficiency is much higher (more earnings per $ invested), and they can expand much more quickly. They seem to have a key piece of technology for maximizing output from silicon cells. If they move beyond manufacturing to licensing their technology to the big players in europe they can increase their earnings even faster.
Their total capital expenditure for 2008 for 90MW is ~$29 million.
"Over the next four years to the end of 2011 we currently have contracted volumes, valued at 2008 pricing and the March 31, 2008 foreign exchange rate, of $950 million of which $499 million are minimum purchase obligations. In addition we have optioned additional volumes valued at $451 million. If we purchase all our contracted amounts, and all options currently available, the total contracted value of these purchases through 2011, at 2008 pricing and March 31, 2008 foreign exchange rate, would be approximately $950 million." MD&A from Sedar.com
Average earnings estimate per share for 2009 is $0.52 x 36,605,836 shares = $19 million in earnings on 90MW, that's $0.20/MW, i.e. 65 cents profit in the first year for each dollar invested in capital.
If they license their technology at say $0.20/MW (i.e. ~5% of selling price) on 100+ MW this would double their earnings.
2. Lawrence Asset Management Inc. increased its stake in the company from 3,938,840 shares to 4,504,440. They have a total of 156,642 warrants at $7.98 per share, expiring September 6, 2009.
Early Warning Report Pursuant to:
Part XX of the Securities Act (Ontario)
Multinational Instrument 62-104-Take-Over Bids and Issuer Bids and
National Instrument 62-103 –The Early Warning System and Related Take-Over
Bid and Insider Reporting Issues
1. The name and address of the Offeror
Lawrence Asset Management Inc. (the “Offeror”)
Suite 1500, 220 Bay Street
Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W4
2. Name of the Reporting Issuer
Day4 Energy Inc. (“the Issuer”)
3. The designation and number or principal amount of securities and the
Offeror’s security holding percentage in the class of the securities of which
the Offeror acquired ownership or control in the transaction or occurrence
giving rise to the obligation to file a news release, and whether it was
ownership or control that was acquired in those circumstances
As at January 9, 2008, the Offeror had acquired 3,938,840 common shares and
156,642 warrants of the Issuer on behalf of accounts that are fully managed by it.
Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share of the Issuer at an
exercise price of C$7.98 per common share until September 6, 2009. As a result
of the transaction, the Offeror exercises control over 3,938,840 common shares
and 156,642 warrants of the Issuer representing approximately 11.2% of the
outstanding common shares of the Issuer on a partially diluted basis.
The Offeror subsequently acquired an additional 565,500 common shares of the
Issuer. As a result of these transactions, the Offeror exercises control over
4,504,440 common shares and 156,642 warrants representing approximately
12.76% of the outstanding common shares of the Issuer on a partially diluted
basis.
4. The designation and number or principal amount of securities and the
Offeror’s security holding percentage in the class of securities immediately
after the transaction or occurrence giving rise to obligation to file a news
release
As at January 9, 2008, the Offeror acquired, and exercises control over, an
aggregate of 3,938,840 common shares and 156,642 warrants of the Issuer,
representing approximately 11.2% of the outstanding common shares of the Issuer
on a partially diluted basis. The Offeror subsequently acquired an additional
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565,500 common shares of the Issuer. As a result of these transactions, the
Offeror exercises control over 4,504,440 common shares and 156,642 warrants
representing approximately 12.76% of the outstanding common shares of the
Issuer on a partially diluted basis.
5. The designation and number or principal amount of securities and the
percentage of outstanding securities of the class of securities referred to in
paragraph (3) over which:
(a) the Offeror, either alone or together with any joint actors, has
ownership and control
N/A
(b) the Offeror, either alone or together with any joint actors, has
ownership but control is held by other persons or companies other
than Offeror or any joint actor
N/A
(c) the Offeror, either alone or together with any joint actors, has
exclusive or shared control but does not have ownership
The Offeror exercises exclusive control over 4,504,440 common
shares of the Issuer and 156,642 warrants of the Issuer representing
approximately 12.76% of the Issuer’s outstanding common shares on a
partially diluted basis.
6. The name of the market in which the transaction or occurrence that gave rise
to the news release took place
Toronto Stock Exchange
7. The value, in Canadian dollars, of any consideration offered per security if the
Offeror acquired ownership of a security in the transaction or occurrence
giving rise to the obligation to file a news release.
N/A
8. The purpose of the Offeror and any joint actors in effecting the transaction or
occurrence that gave rise to the news release, including any future intention to
acquire ownership of, or control over, additional securities of the reporting
issuer
The Offeror acquired the common shares and warrants of the Issuer described
above for investment purposes only on behalf of accounts that are fully managed
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by it and it may, depending on market and other conditions, increase or decrease
its control or direction over, common shares or other securities of the Issuer
through market transactions, private agreements or otherwise.
9. The general nature and the material terms of any agreement, other than
lending arrangements, with respect to securities of the reporting issuer
entered into by the Offeror, or any joint actor, and the issuer of the securities
or any other entity in connection with the transaction or occurrence giving
rise to the news release, including agreements with respect to the acquisition,
holding, disposition or voting of any of the securities
N/A
10. The names of any joint actors in connection with the required disclosure
N/A
11. In the case of a transaction or occurrence that did not take place on a stock
exchange or other market that represents a published market for the
securities, including an issuance from treasury, the nature and value in
Canadian dollars of the consideration paid by the Offeror
919,540 of the common shares and all of the warrants noted above were acquired
pursuant to a Convertible Debenture of the Issuer that was issued on August 29,
2007 for aggregate consideration of $5,000,000. The common shares that the
Offeror acquired control or direction of when the debenture was converted early
were issued from the Issuer’s Treasury. The warrants may be exercised at $7.98
per common share until September 6, 2009.
12. If applicable, a description of any change in any material fact set out in a
previous report by the entity under the early warning requirements or Part 4
of National Instrument 62-103 in respect of the reporting issuer’s securities
N/A
13. If applicable, a description of the exemption from securities legislation being
relied on by the Offeror and the facts supporting that reliance.
The Offeror is registered under the Securities Act (Ontario) as an advisor. The
Offeror acquired the common shares and warrants of the Issuer pursuant to a
private placement that was conducted by the Issuer in reliance upon the
“accredited investor” exemption available pursuant to section 2.3 of National
Instrument 45-106 Prospectus and Registration Exemptions.
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DATED this 3rd day of June, 2008.
“K. M. Hoang”
Authorized Signing Officer