BOTTOM LINE = NO DOWNSIDEHaving read and researched through all the arguments, it looks like the worst case scenario is being reflected by the stock price. And in as much as markets always overreact up or down, I feel that this is a case where there downside overreaction has been overdone.
What I mean by that is that the market is pricing Altius at breakup value as if it is Altius that has filed for bankruptcy protection and that it will be broken up and the assets distributed to the shareholders. This is obviously ridiculous but should provide comfort to shareholders as far as downside protection is concerned especially considering the high net cash position.
Once the dust settles and cooler heads prevail Altius should start to regain its value as an ongoing concern and trade at a premium to its NAV .
This premise is on the basis that Altius is run by a successful and innovative team that is by no means risk-averse but has always taken care of limiting the risk to a level that first would not irrepairably damage the company or impair its ability to continue its ongoing activities and second that the risk-reward ratio should be exceptional and the potential return would far outweight a possible loss, if any.
The brilliant NLRC is a project that fitted all these criteria when it was hatched and had the financial world not imploded because of its incredibly irresponsible lending practices and derivative activities we would not be here today contemplating the project's possible bankruptcy. All these Monday morning quarterbacks that are now criticizing the management were either full of praise and admiration or plain jealousy when Altius had the vision to create and push foreword the NLRC project years ahead of any competition.
I believe that irrespective of what happens to NLRC (and the game is by no means over yet) Altius' share price will recover and fly again. The exceptional (and wiser) management will prove its critics wrong by pulling yet another rabbit out of its hat and they still have plenty of cash to do it.
May you live in interesting times !