RE: don't you think
dumsterdiver,
As I recall, last year when oil was over $65 and heading to $70 / barrel, Steve Forbes was saying that oil was in a bubble and would retreat to $45....and stay in that area. When oil went over $80 Steve Forbes was still holding to his previous statements. I believe that Steve has finally raised his floor now and others are saying that oil may drop to $100 / barrel as a base level. I believe that Boone Pickens tried to short natural gas earlier this year...maybe oil also. He had to cover and went back long.
My point is that even those that consider themselves the goo-rues of the investment markets make thier guesses and can get thier lunch handed to them. There are very few "Truths' and 'Certainties' out here in the investment world. Those that proclaim the commodity market is dead are thowing out comments that have no absolutes...or certainties. These are opinions only....based on the mood of those making these proclaimations at a moment in time where things look ugly. When the market turns they will most likely flip sides of the fence....just because they see SP's going up. To chitcan ones beliefs...and convictions based on daily/weekly SP fluctuations will have us making moves that may easily backfire. Sometimes we get lucky and make perfect trades. To those that have...congratulations. Mine are not hard to figure out...buy more on the severest of dips.
CMK is no Dot-Com investment of the 90's. Coal is not discretionary like Star Bucks coffee. Value will ultimately be based on how bad one wants/needs the product. If there are better alternatives than coal then I could be wrong...but I don't see any at this time...so my conviction will stand....and our SP will rebound IMHO. But hey....I am no Warren Buffet....no Boone Pickens...no Steve Forbes....so what do I know?
Badog