RE: Paul van WrongI got a chuckle out of Thaidiamond's post. PvE actually said that Bishop was "just a journalist"? What a hoot!
On June 6th in his letter entitled "Flogging a dead bull" PvE declared victory upon the base metals debate as the London Metals Exchange index for aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc was up 1.2% over two years. While a technical victory maybe considering that his new Actual Inflation Rate was 9.43% for 07 and is running at 10.57% annualized so far for 08 I think that the jury is still out on base metals.
But a key point that he ignored was he called iron a base metal and justified his dumping of Northland on those grounds; here's a direct quote from the July 16, 2006 letter:
"I believe a major economic downturn could be in the cards, so I have very little appetite for base metals. I like the company and I like its projects; I would not have sold it if I weren’t bearish on base metals."
Meanwhile Northland tripled after his sale as iron prices rose over forty% in 07 and over 90% recently. Maybe since flogging a live and charging bull isn't a good idea he didn't mention either iron nor Northland while declaring victory on base metals.
And then there was that disasterous call on uranium, bearish on uranium at $30 because it was overvalued. A year and a half later yellowcake spot prices were around $140 and even now after the hedgefunds dumped the price is still well north of thirty bucks.
An outstanding knowledge of the junior exploration industry doesn't necessarily correspond with an outstanding insight into broader sectors of resources. The old canard by Clint Eastwood is fitting: "A man has got to know his limitations."