U3O8.biz - Market Commentaryhttps://www.u308.biz
July 12, 2008
U3O8.biz Weekend Wrapup
Publisher: U3O8.biz
Author: Luke Brocki
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I'm back, baby! A line popularized by Seinfeld's George Costanza, arguably the greatest sitcom character of all time, can now confidently be applied to spot uranium prices, which are strengthening for the first time in 2008, much to the delight of investors.
Price publisher Ux Consulting just raised its spot price for the second week in a row, boosting it US$1 to US$60 a pound U3O8. Rival publisher Tradetech agreed, also bumping up its spot uranium price estimate to US$60 a pound U3O8, citing the emergence of significant demand from the investment community as the biggest driving force behind uranium's continued upward movement.
Supply and demand dynamics rule this market, as they do all others, and sellers eager to cash in on the new buying interest are raising their offer prices at every turn. It's not clear exactly why a bull market has suddenly emerged in the troubled sector, but according to Tradetech, the turnaround was overdue; spot uranium prices were simply too low for too long and those depressed levels were insufficient to support new mining capacity.
And there's lots of that coming. According to Bloomberg News, India, China, Canada, Japan, and Russia will bring new nuclear reactors online by 2009 at the latest and plans and proposals for other reactors around the world continue to roll in.
But we can't forget that the prolonged spot bear market has affected term prices of the metal, which have recently declined US$10 to US$80. The good news is that more than half of the uranium moved on the 2008 long-term market was traded in June, but uranium bears fear the term price may continue to tumble as utilities eager to replenish their inventories hunt for bargains.
Still, that's not happening just yet. If anything, uranium may have finally reached its proverbial "bottom", as the gap between physical uranium bids and offers continues to shrink, heralding higher demand through the summer and fall, especially now that US supplies have been shown to be lower than predicted earlier this year.
Here bears again warn that much of the new demand remains discretionary, with some of the material now in demand expected to return to the market as investors cash in on their profits. Time will tell, but remember not to panic at any slight downturn, given the expected seasonal slowdown of the summer months.
Looking now at futures pricing, this year's July contracts are worth US$60, August to October futures are trading at US$61, and November and December futures are worth US$62. Come June 2009, futures are expected to pick up, and are now priced at US$70, with December 2009 futures worth US$74.
According to the weekly uranium update from Toll Cross Securities, the enthusiasm over spot prices has yet to infect uranium stocks, many of which are drowning in a sea of red. Compared to this time last week, junior explorers were down three per cent, advanced explorers down six per cent, production visibility companies down 10 per cent, and producers down four per cent. In the last two weeks, the Toll Cross Junior Uranium Index has dropped 11 per cent, to 289.31 from 325.36 points.
In global nuclear news, G8 leaders were talking nuclear at the G8 Hokkaido summit in Japan, but critics called the meeting soft, as the group didn't actually endorse nuclear energy as a means of fighting climate change, despite seeking an ambitious 50-per-cent cut of carbon emissions by 2050. G8 leaders have acknowledged growing global nuclear interest, but weren't ready to throw their weight behind the technology.
Instead, the group plans to launch an international initiative on '3S-based' nuclear energy infrastructure, reported World Nuclear News. 3S stands for Safeguards, Safety, and Security, and is being launched to help establish some common guidelines in a world increasingly receptive to nuclear power.
Then again, perhaps they're right to be careful, as the complicated situation in Iran just got more complicated. The G8 leaders, echoing the concerns of much of the Western world, have also called on Tehran to halt uranium enrichment activities. A new round of US financial sanctions followed, this time against companies and individuals suspected of nuclear involvement.
BBC News reported a senior defense ministry scientist and several companies suspected of having links to Iran's nuclear industry were included in the new list of restrictions, which freezes the US assets of those affected and also prohibits trade with US companies.
But while the West frets about Iran's nuclear activities, worrying the country is striving to build nuclear weapons, Iran remains defiant, ignoring UN sanctions and insisting its nuclear programme exists exclusively for electricity generation.
Over in France, one of that country's biggest nuclear plants experienced an accidental spill of uranium waste on Tuesday. According to Agence France-Presse, authorities said the health risks were negligible, despite some 30 cubic meters of uranium-contaminated effluent spilling out at the Tricastin Nuclear Power Centre.
This was the first incident of its kind at the facility, but worried radioactivity researchers, who felt that similar spills have occurred in the past, exposing weaknesses in the handling of nuclear waste materials. Since the incident, French authorities ordered the temporary closure of the facility, but its site operator has decided to permanently shut down the plant as part of what is reportedly a planned upgrade.