RE: SHARE PRICE/JOINT VENTUREIt is premature to start predicting a share price of between $6.00 and $12.00 per share after the JV announcement for a number of reasons. Any major will want a huge slice of the pie to assume the risk of drilling a deep-water well which will cost in excess of $100 million.
In all likelihood CGX will end up with between 10% and 30% to be carried for all costs. I have been in the market for over 30 years and have seen many juniors give up a majority interest in their properties in order to be partnered with one of the big boys. Assuming a 20% piece of the action I doubt that CGX will suddenly pop up to the levels which you suggest. Don't forget that the first well is not scheduled for drilling until late 2009 or early 2010 depending on rig availability and services required. Also, deep-water wells only have a 1 in 4 chance of success at best and most likely the success rate is 1 in 10. Noble came up empty recently off the coast of Suriname and shortly after the gunboat incident in 2000 CGX also came up empty on their Horseshoe prospect. So there are no guarantees of success once we even begin drilling.
I have been holding this stock since before we were chased off by Surinamese gunboats in June 2000. It's nice to get excited of what may be but let's also temper our emotions with a dose of reality. If the stock reacts positively once the JV is announced it may in fact be an ideal time to sell and then buy back in once drilling commences .
Let's all hope for the best.