RE: sell monday..baddogsimplythefacts,
There are market forces out there that impact a stock for reasons that we will never know. Is Cline a wash?? Did well healed investors such as Mitsui & Pinetree make a huge mistake. Did Mitsui make a huge mistake when they gladly grabbed up TK's shares? Did Pinetree miss something as they bought millions of shares? Do you see Insiders, Mitsui and Pinetree panic and throw in the towel. No. They pay thier people huge amounts of money to know the difference between good investments and bad ones. They understand these type of pullbacks. Is the current SP the main indicator of the future of Cline? Is that what we should use as our primary research? That's message board research only. Is that what we should focus on? Do the markets always work in a rational fashion?
Mitsui is the saving grace in what could otherwise have been a worse situation with Thyssen Krupp leaving the table. The unfortunate part of Mitsui gaining Thyssen shares is that it puts CMK in a similar situation to WTN, whereas Mitsui essentially controls CMK now (perhaps given Ken B's past employment by Mitsui they did before as well) similar to Cambrian controlling WTN. The big question is, what is Mitsui's long term intentions with regard to New Elk and CMK. Does Mitsui want to own New Elk and run it long term or do they just want the rights to the sale of the coal, or both? Does Mitsui want to own it all? If they do, they have made great strides in gaining control already and pending mine financing announcements they could even gain a larger block.
As for Pinetree, each time they report purchasing shares I see it as a good thing, because they are taking trading shares off the market. That said, I do not give them the same kind of credit to them as wise decision makers. Pinetree is down in value significantly, just because they may pay their people large amounts of money does not soley make a Company good. If this were true, then their stockprice would reflect this. While on the topic of Pinetree, I wonder if they will be involved in some part in the financing. Pinetrees purchases have seemed to have slowed down recently. Perhaps like many others Pinetree is waiting for a bottom, perhaps they have as much of CMK as they want, perhaps they are going to participate in a financing, or maybe given their own poor stock performance they will sell their block to a larger Company who wants a piece of CMK at some time in the future when the price of CMK reaches their desired price. Pinetree did seem to transfer the CMK shares it owned from a direct ownership by Pinetree to an indirect ownership through Pinetree Resource Partnership, which could be a strategic move for a future sale.
I saw pullbacks before with CMK. I assume that you did too. Is each pullback rational. Is each runup rational? It was easy for investors to say that Cline was the next coming when it was heading over $2.50. It's just as easy for posters to say the Cline is washed up during a pullback. These are just emotions that get displayed on message boards depending on the current SP. I can't even estimate the number of times I have seen this in the past. When the SP direction changes the tone changes....and it intensifies proportially with the degree of the run up or pull back.
There is nothing inherintly rational in the stock markets. How rational were all the to the moon comments seen as CMK was approaching its high? People tend to ignore warning signs, they write them off, likewise people intend to ignore value in a Company when sentiments are low. Myself, I think many people ignored the warning signs in the NI 43-101 report that came out. Personally, I do not see CMK's disclosure of limited information contained in the report in its May 8th announcement of aquiring the surface assets as truly reflective of the actual full NI 43-101 report that was finally released over a month later on June 13th. The May 8th announcement left so much to specualtion. It did not IMHO present the full picture of current mine permit status, condition of the mine, and disclose the nature of work required to re-open the mine. This left the way clear for anyone and everyone to hype it up even more with all sorts of predictions on how soon they could be mining. The gave a timeline of ASAP in the report, which could mean anything. Personally, my impression is that it was all vaugely worded and that seemed to help the run up on the hype to proceed. Maybe they did not want to release the full report right away because they did not want to put the breaks on the speculative run in value of CMK. If this was the case, is this a respectable thing to do, when at the time of the first release CMK had the full report according to what it said in that release. The actual release of the report IMHO was the catalyst for the fall in stock price that shortly followed its release. The large bull runs tend to like speculation rather than facts. They tend to like little factual information because it allows just about any scenario to be put forward to pump up a stocks value. As Companies release information where people can reasonably assess timelines and value, the market tends to frown upon it, it removes people's "creative license" in speculating. Need an example, look at GXS, SMI, etc.
Anyone that thinks Cline is toast is welcome to bail. Won't affect Clines prospects or future as those things will take thier course with or without the individuals on this board. Don't you wonder the motives of the posts here? Some may be shorting Cline....some may be bashing for their own gain. What I see little of are posts involving any news that would change the fundamental propects of Cline. Posts all seem to be involved with the SP...as if that is what will determine Clines future. Hell, I've seem stocks like AMD get cut in half....all the posters were giving AMD last rights....and then AMD came back and went over the previous SP. Did the pullback indicate the prospects of AMD? No. It was just noise by message board posters who wanted to scare off less informed investors. You act like you never heard of market swings...or manipulation....like you have never seen it. Yet I assume that you have seen it more than once with Cline already.
Personally, it is not my belief that CMK is toast. The Company however acts in ways I do not fully respect, especially when it comes to disclosure to its shareholders. I ALWAYS questions people's motives (which I am sure is more than evident in my sparring with the Mine_Proffessor). I, perhaps like you, see very few posts which rationally speak of CMK's valuation, good or bad. What would be nice to see from Cline, is the Comapny executing in ways which exceed shareholders expectations. As I have watched CMK for years they have consistently failed to meet expectations in terms of cost estimates and timelines. Look at the rising costs of New Elk. In July 2007 they estimated New Elk to cost 50 million for aquisition, capital, and refurbishment costs. Then they disclose in the MDA for 3 months ending Feb 29, 2008 to be 80 to 100 million, then in the July 2008 announcement of the full aquisition the costs are at the upper limit of 100 million. Similar things have occured with timelines. You always assume people are trying to scare others off? What about those who try to scare people in? Play to their fear and greed that they may miss a boat. The market does swing, it is manipulated, in BOTH directions.
It's easy to join the current crowd on a message board. It's easy to question your own convictions when a SP pulls back or message board posters are bashing. What's hard is to stand behind your convictions when the herd has turned against you. If you, or the rest of those on this board want to slam me it's OK. I don't base my decisions on the posts on this board....unless a post includes 'material events' that will affect Clines future.
You are right, it is easier to be in the current crowd on a message board. I have consistently criticized this Company for reasons I think are valid. You assume, incorrectly (but I am not about to get into a debate with you), my motives are to do nothing but bash Cline so that I can buy cheap shares. I will state for the record, I would like nothing more than to have nothing to criticize the Company about. That said, this board gets to times when it has no rational "balance". The stock runs and the pumpers are worshipped. Say something negative or skeptical and you are a basher. I have yet to see one person with real credibility put forth a rational valuation on CMK. Yes, people bash. Yes people use fear to manipulate the stock. Yes people use greed to manipulate the stock as well and prey on peoples dreams of getting rich or getting ahead to irrationally affect peoples investment decisions. People try to strike fear into the weak to get them to seel their shares to help cause a drop in the stockprice and people use fear of missing a boat to get them to buy.
What would be your advice to current holders of Cline shares now....right now? Sell??? Hold??? Buy??? Your response will say a lot. Maybe other posters would care to answer this question. I'll bet most won't. They can't. We'll see.
Advice to current shareholders for an investment decision? Use your head! Filter out the greed, and filter out the fear. Take advantage of the lows if you think there is value here, and always , always , always, when that irrational excitement overcomes you, take some profit. Buy low, sell high. Look at the amount of "solid" information out there, and ask yourself, does the shareprice reflect the actual value of the Company, be it high, or low. Nothing ever shoots straight to the moon, and do not listen to anyone who says it is. I am sure this will create some interesting responses and assumptions by some as usual.....so be it.
Badog
Calabinvest