RE: Reading File
:
"
Supply of the alloying metal is tight--so tight, in fact, that a closed moly mine (Freeport-McMoRan’s Climax facility in Colorado) soon will be shipping material, along with the new General Moly facility in Mt. Hope, Nev., and the Thompson Creek Mining deposit in British Columbia. “Together, these projects ensure a well-supplied market,” says Global Insight analyst K.C. Chang in a note to clients,
but not until 2010."
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Wow, talk about ill-informed analysts. Obviously some people do more homework than these analysts do. It's funny because all the analysts seem to think the same way.
These are the same guys that said the Davidson deposit was a slam dunk for 2007 full production. Not only was that mine not built according to how the analysts thought, IT WASN'T BUILT AT ALL, and MAY NEVER BE BUILT. Although I guess its best not to say never.
General Moly couldn't be up and running by 2010 if their lives depended on it. End of 2011 is a possible dream if everything goes perfectly, but it never does. They have plenty of issues still as does Climax, and although Adanac has solved all their issues except the money, they will not be up and running until 2010, so how can any of these larger projects even dream of being online at the same time? It's as close to impossible as one can imagine.
Even when Climax, and General Moly (startups) and Thompson's upgrade come to pass, the world demand will have increased by a large amount per year for 2009, 2010 and 2011 at least.
WOW, I was just calculating new demand each year and uncovered something I consider stunning.
I've been reading over and over again how Moly consumption worldwide is increasing at 5% per year, and roasting capacity is already maxxed out, but in reality the consumption since 2002 has been growing every year on average a whopping 7.5%!
the numbers: moly used: 2003 - 349 Mlbs, 2004 - 374 Mlbs, 2005 - 399 Mlbs, 2007 - 464 Mlbs (sources various locations on the net)
If you run the numbers this is a growth rate maintained for years of 7.5%.
At this rate, the world needs NEW SUPPLY EACH YEAR TO COME ONLINE OF 35 MILLION POUNDS OF MOLY minimum. Since Climax the BIG ONE will only be 20 MILLION LBS, you have to figure we are coming into a time period of serious shortfalls, sooner than later. Even with everything we know about coming online as rosy and optismistically as they dream in terms of speed and no problems, there is still a small shortfall from where demand is now, which means
prices aren't going to drop.
We all know that reality will show that things take longer than assumed.
Hopefully
THE SMART MONEY REALIZES THIS TOO AND WILL FINANCE THIS MINE.
Good luck to all,
x