Mercator Minerals Ltd MLKKF

If I wanted to destroy ....

[bendergarden]

....the average retail investor, and all the hard working folk out there, here's what I'd do:


I'd get high ranking treasury and other prominent white house members to say they were crafting a bailout package to "save the financial system".

Then i'd get the President to go on TV and tell the whole world that it was being done to shield all americans (and other nations by extension) from serious economic and standard of living damage, and it absolutely had to be done to avoid a severe recession/depression.

Then I'd announce that  we're not going to do it.

That oughtta do it.     Ya think?


On a nother note, I mused about a scenario a few posts ago, blah blah if Mercator makes 200 million in 2009,   eps of 2.00 and change, p/e of 2.75 at current sp, etc etc.    200 million was a pretty low figure, for next year, I left a lot of breathing room.  Thats about copper at 2.35 and moly at about 23.00 or so. It assumes they hit their full target of 75% of full capacity production once last stage done for the year. A lot lower prices  than they are now. So in spite of all this carnage in the markets, Mercator could still earn around 200 million next year, well within reason. They still could have a p/e of ... 2.2 at the current price...   and there is still a good case for a share price of 10.00 next year.

There is no bottom to commodity prices though. Too many projects are coming on stream for copper. It could go stinkin' low. Obviously it can only go so low, before all the high cost and marginal producers are killed off, and supply chain weakens, and a rebalancing occurs..  

The kind of boom we have seen though, with supply struggling to stay with demand... that is most definately over. A return to more historically normal prices is in the cards. All commodity booms end that way. And they all end. Even China can't stop that.

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