GREY:MLKKF - Post by User
Post by
bendergardenon Sep 30, 2008 6:15pm
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Post# 15495259
Garbage day for commodities.
Garbage day for commodities.Total garbage. I realize of course that up is better than down, but it was a pretty big recovery today, and commodities went nowhere. Nothing made any real gains. Today was a pretty clear signal for the fate of commodity stocks in the near term. A lot of todays gains in any sector would have been computerized portfolio rebalancing as well. Tommorow might be disappointing, unfortunately.
There are some 'safety zones' perhaps, that the next quarterly reports will help with. Coals are set price, and the sector will have some sweet numbers. Potash and fert. companies will thrown down some sweet numbers. Asian forestry (Sino Forest etc) will be very strong. Moly is still hanging in there.
Base metals I think are toast at the moment. Zinc and Nickel are really shot to hell. Copper is safer, but I can't call it. I don't know what will happen with it. Moly I think will waeken a bit, but lack of roasters and non substitutability, plus virtually zero supply increases other than the modest inreases from china in the past couple months should keep it afloat.
I think the global potash and asian timber shortages are acute enough that those equities will carry through OK, once calmer waters return.
Anyone's else's thoughts??