Nothing change here... API still my #1 pickThis is the right opportunity!
The Company has a clear objective; to establish itself as a pre-eminent Canadian public company engaged solely on potash exploration and development and to provide its shareholders with a unique investment opportunity focused entirely on potash
Read some here:
Athabasca Potash Inc. Announces Indicated Mineral Resources of 241 Million Tonnes in the Burr Project
Post says Athabasca Potash gets market's attention
2008-10-01 09:13 ET - In the News
The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday edition investors realized on Tuesday that Athabasca Potash is definitely on to something big. The Post's Peter Koven writes that on Monday morning, the Saskatoon junior released a resource update that was ignored as the markets went into a historic tailspin. As the fear dissipated Tuesday, Athabasca's shares shot up 94 cents to close at $4.10. The big news is the company's Burr project in Saskatchewan now has an estimated 156.8 million tonnes of indicated and inferred potash resources, up from the previous estimate of 30 million tonnes. It was evidence the company is on track to do something no one has done in 38 years -- build a new potash mine in Saskatchewan. "We work harder [than competitors], we're taking a little bit longer, but we are the most advanced project and we believe we will be the one who builds the next greenfield mine," said chief executive officer Dawn Zhou. Canaccord Adams analyst Keith Carpenter said the biggest challenge for the company is financing. A two-million-tonne-a-year potash mine would cost about $2.8-billion (U.S.) to build in North America. Raising funds is harder than ever in the current credit environment.
Some Investors Relation
https://www.renmarkfinancial.com/en/node/1359
From a good article:
MARKET OUTLOOK
It has been a rough 3 months since our Potash Junior picks descended with the overall market. With it went sentiment towards all Commodity based equities, with the old winners becoming the biggest losers. Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Base Metals, and even the precious metals experienced steep declines, while the only two commodities which remained buoyed were Potash Fertilizer, and Steel. Alas, when panic sets in, and the margin calls cometh, both Institutional Investor and Retail Investor alike revert back to the most basic of instincts; fight or flight. What we have witnessed is nothing short of a flight from everything. The "throw the baby out with the bathwater" approach to investing - a philosophy I never subscribe to. Through this recent round of "market cleansing", we must look at the positives, namely, it has given us more transparency as to what value commodities actually have when the speculative hedge funds bail out. What we’ve witnessed is Oil moving back up over one hundred and climbing; Gold moving back to the 900 range with sights set on the old short lived 1000 mark; Potash prices remaining flat - flush up against all-time-highs (and set to move up again as demand increases later this year and agricultural commodities have started to move back up), and steel prices continuing. While Natural gas is entering a historical period of strength, Coal closely follows (while Metallurgical coal follows steel demand). If you study this in detail, it becomes apparent that even without the hedge/Institutional support these commodities have enjoyed in the past, their relative strength remains, and a move towards and eventually through old highs is inevitable...only this time, the hedgers will be forced to enter their positions at much higher prices than their previous positions! Why? Hedge funds are like manic depressant gamblers in a casino. They are either tremendous bulls, or tremendous bears - no middle ground. They also lack the will and ability to stay on the sidelines for long periods of time. Holding a cash or bond position is simply not a proper hedger's strategy, and they inevitably will move their multi-billion dollar positions into the perceived strongest areas of the market; namely Energy, Agriculture, and Precious metals. Why? Because the fundamentals of supply and demand suggest these are the areas who have fundamentally not broken down in their supply/demand economics, and these provide REAL value as opposed to the US Dollar, whose perceived value is only artificially held up by the growth countries who demand our commodities the most; India, and China.
POTASH JUNIOR PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Earlier this year, I identified a number of Potash Junior companies for our basket based on certain important criteria;
A. Be located in Politically stable, mining friendly regions with Current Potash Production to capitalize on economies of scale
B. Have historical data which suggests the presence of potentially economically feasible deposits
C. Be different; Identify a market need which is currently unfulfilled, and establish a position
D. Have people who have had past success in the Potash Exploration industry
I selected a number of companies who met one or more of the criteria, as I understood that there was no way of telling who the eventual winners would be. Several months has passed, and I now have a clearer picture of the space, and subsequently, are providing an update to our picks:
API – Buy – API has a successful team, and has been continuing with a successful drill program. They are well capitalized and control a dominant land position. API has been and continues to be described as the second best Junior land position in Saskatchewan next to Anglo Potash who was bought out by BHP earlier this year
KCL – Hold – I continue to hold KCL but will likely reduce our position on the up-leg. While their land position is good, and they are well capitalized, the claims of production timelines are very questionable. In all likelihood, they will disappoint on their milestone timelines, as they have been overly aggressive in their target, for which the street will punish them.
MAA – Sell – There is simply no patience left for companies operating in politically high risk jurisdictions.
PON – Sell – The easy money has been made here. They are leveraged to the success of KCL, making this an easy decision. If you like the story, consider moving to KCL.
RAY – Hold – Although they have brought on some interesting expertise, it appears they may have a lower grade secondary type deposit. Wait for drill results
TEL – Buy – TEL (aka Intercontinental potash Corp) has held up considerably well over the last 3 months. The % loss from its 3 months ago peak is considerably less than its peers. The only pick in our list who have moved to deliver a related Potash product which is both needed in the marketplace, and currently unavailable. Potential to corner the Polyhalite (Potash related mineral) market globally makes this a must have. Low cost exploration program as the target will support the historical 200 hole data. Bottom appears to be in.
WPX – Weak Buy – Results have disappointed. At this point, current drill results are likely already priced into the market price. They need to deliver something better. Bottom appears to be in.