RE: We're not here for a good time and we're hereCould be.
I think the short ban will be extended.
In July (~three months ago), when oil dropped from $140 to $129, everynoe said no worries - even if oil goes to $90 - business is solid. It is there, and in the next three months, $50-60 is very possible IMO, given the broad bear market and the fact that every possible piece of bad news will be reacted on, and good news will bring a muted response (opposite of the three years ending last Dec). Wild Cards on Oil will be a) OPEC - though they never deem to be able to do much on controlling oil price and b) the reduction in projects ongoing - this would lead to less oil being available when/if the econmoies of China/India get back on track. Those two countries will drive the price of OIl from 2010 onwards and by 2020, China will consume more energy than anyone. OPEC do something to stabilize price at ~80-100 until the effects of b) start to reduce production outside of OPEC (mid 2009?).
So - short term, I don't expect much - but with BNK, if they scale back on capital expenditures for 6-18 months, they shoud come out strong. Medium term - O&G should go higher as soon as previaling mood changes from Bear to Bull.
Long term - Nuclear/electrical will dominate - only problem there will be shortage of uranium, and we all know who has most of the uranium.