MacroLets think about that big picture, IMO commodities are not finished. Reason being the Peoples Rebulic of China $ India. Let me explain:
1)What 2 countries have the worlds larges populations?
China #1 with about 1/6 (16.67%) of the population & India #2 with 1/8 (12.50%). Add those two up and you get 29.17% of the worlds population.
2) What is China & India's expected GDP for 2009?
I believe I heard on BNN 9% and India, Google search showed 7.5-8%....HUGE, IMO.
3)Are commodities going to go to the levels that we saw in Apr-June 2008?
I would maybe guess - not likely. The US has gotten their panties in a knot, but they untangle those panties. In the mean time, China and India will not really slow down. They will compared to the 2008 levels however still extremely strong. With about 30% worlds population, they will pick up the slack that the US can't. When it is all said and over, USA will be China's B!tch. IMO. China has an opportinity here. If they act quick-like, they will become a financial powerhouse. They will be buy everything in site at these prices.
Commodities have almost seen the bottom, I think they will go down for a litle bit longer. However, they will come back strong. China and India will be saving or a$$es. They will be keeping the commodities strong. This is only a correction. A correction that no one has a clue what is going on and no clue what to do.
Keep in mind, a major part of the commodity down fall was the fact that Hedge funds have had to liquidate there equities and the have a major portion of equities. Once they are back, it will bring the price with it. IMO
Just a breif rant of what may happen. Remember, things do change and anything is possible.
GLTA