RE: fear rulesHé Goldtoe,
First when I saw your name, I thought that I clicked on the wrong BB (VQS BB).
Concerning, your idea of a trend up of gas in UK. Yes I agree at medium term ( 1-2 year). But for now all commodities will be down till the market digest the global recession and credit crisis. And it will take some time. It's not just in the US anymore. It's in EU but in China too. Have you seen the angry new chinese owners of condos that just lost 30% of value in less than 5 months. They were asking for a refund from the promoter and gov. China is also hardly hit by the fall of demand for there products.
Concerning the US$ being strip of it status. Iran and some other countries are pushing to give the
crown to the EURO. But they will have a lot of opposition.
When the US dollar strengthen we don't hear a lot of people dispute that status. By the way, it's not the US dollar that is getting stronger, it's all the other currencies that are weakening.
Here is my scenario of what will happen, and please I'm just brainstorming this since few weeks, so you can demolish this theory (you can also read speculation):
First of all, we will have a period of recession and credit problem,not just in US but globally, this one is easy, we are right in the middle of it.
Second, Americans have a lot of credit problems and they have no savings. Obama is going to win the election, and will have no choice of raising taxes, and print a lot of money to get the Americans out of this mess and start large infrastructure project to jump start the economy. They are already in deficit not only with the budget but with export also, so they will need to print a lot of money and borrow again. The US$ will loose value and confidence from the investors, This is when the inflation will kick in, raising the cost of commodities, lowering the value of the US$. And more and more people will take there distance from the US currency.
At that point in time, your scenario of higher gas price and other commodities will kick in I think.
Take care Goldtoe!