RE: I E A REPORT WARNING -Tinman - NAIL on HEAD my friend.
Remember though that for about three years - people who got it were warning that Adjustable Rate Mortgages were going to lead to a massice financial crisis that would affect world economy. I heard, but couldn't believe that if that were true "smart money' would correct it before it came to that.
The wild card here is that if OPEC can actually reduce production (by 5M bbl/day) AND abide by it, oil should go back to $80 in the short term and that will be enough to keep investment going. If not, then as you say, just as we get out of the current recession, there will be a huge spike in the cost of fuel ($200+ easy) and that could very well create the cycle all over.
I don't trust OPEC to do the right thing though. I hope BNK has dones as i sugested awhile back, and scaled back spending so that they can survive an extended period of low oil prices and be in good position when the price spike hits.