How undervalued etc...a bit more.cbrit et al:
I am back but only for a few minutes.
Just to finish off - I went back and "clipped" my little Table from my original previous post on this subject for handy reference as per immediately below:
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Taking a quick look at what the Value Range Per Share might look like for these 46.5MM carats using a Range of $10, $15 and $20 per carat for MPV's 49% share, here is a simple Table:
$10/ct >>>>>>Gross Project VALUE= $465MM>>>>>MPV Project VALUE = $229MM>>>>$3.82/sh
$15/ct >>>>>>Gross Project VALUE= $698MM>>>>>MPV Project VALUE = $342MM>>>>$5.71/sh
$20/ct >>>>>>Gross Project VALUE= $930MM>>>>>MPV Project VALUE = $456MM>>>>$7.60/sh
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Notice that for every $5/carat Increase (Or Decrease) the $/Share moves by only about a measly $2.00/share!!!
So at say, $25/ct (which appears to be an almost outrageous amount given what is now known), the share price might be in the range of $9.50/share. That is called Sensitivity to Price/Carat...not that much really.
Buyout or NO Buyout, the players (DB's and the TIG's) are keenly aware of these "Black Box" numbers. And money is money. At some point, all things considered, if the money sitting here would be better deployed elsewhere, the TIG's (and DB) will likely move it there, one way or another.
Some things that might propel the share price and tip the scales MORE THAN the value due to the Increase in the Population of Large stones may well be 1) The marked reduction in capital cost thanks to the current and perhaps prolomged economic turndown 2) the reduction in fuel costs 3) The considerable drop in the $CDN from its peak of some months ago. and 4) The continued LONG but Steady Upward trend of "Rough" price regardless of the periodic dips that may take place as only a small per annum increase such a 3% over the longer term can have significant effects on the "VALUE".
It is interesting to note that at $0.82, $1.00 US will now BUY $1.22 CDN whereas at $1.10 or so, $1.00 US only BOUGHT $0.91 CDN only months ago. That is a HUGE swing % wise and may well be the SINGLE LARGEST factor in the equation.
Those are my comments for the time being. Hopefully, they were helpful.
LB