Reasonable valueThere are a number of ways to evaluate the company on a fundamental basis. From all analysis I have read from MANY different analysts and money managers, provided their next year performance comes in as expected, they are priced fairly right around this level. The high end of the range is somewhere around $30ish, the low end is around $20. As the price goes lower from here, the value becomes more compelling, and buying will step in. And vice-versa. If they perform better or worse than expected, that number would obviously change.
Of course, future EPS also depends on the number of shares they buy back!
Where the stock will actually trade is a different story altogether. But BCE is certainly safer and more reliable than most companies out there. That's the tradeoff for it's stodginess. If things get really nasty in '09, this will be a relative safe haven, thanks to the dividend and the stable range of earnings.
The idea that the SP needs to "catch up" to other stocks that got crushed is silly. Had the deal fallen apart in October, yes, it would have fallen further. But that (we hope) is in the past.
Look for some volaitlity int eh coming weeks - both up and down. And then the stock will settle down into a narrower range.
All in all, the company is in pretty good shape. Hopefully the world doesn't end in '09 as predicted and Cope can make good on his promises to kick some life into BCE.