RE: Bloomberg
Some twit on Bllomberg says $25 dollar Oil coming coming from where exactly ?
Panda,
I never posted here before but I do read a lot of the post here and you seem to be one of the decent one. Do not discredit that twitt on Bloomberg just yet. Oil will be going lower, I bought HOD at around $7 as I knew, from a micro-economics POV, it was impossible to sustain the economy with a $147 barrel. Period. I do not hold HOD anymore.
I do not know what your background is but if you took macro and micro economics courses at your alma matter, you know that it will go lower. Yes, yes, yes, supply will get tight but not yet. Go badk and study oil prices for the last 20 years, refelect on the major world event during that period and how world econonies were performing during these years.
Now carefully look back at oil prices during the last 5 years(Katrina, hedge funds buying $147 barrel of oil with only $13 out of their own money (the rest being leveraged), etc. It should never have reached $147 but it did out of total logic and fundamentals. We are all witnessing the worst downturn in global economies........all at the same time.
The U.S has stopped putting out M3 numbers for about two years now, (something unheard of) thanks to our friend Paulson...............because he knew all along...........what is now happening.. The US has been been printing money like there are no tomorrow's since........this can't and won't last, that I am sure of...... but when will it come crashing? that I do not know. 1, 2 or 5 years down the road?
The barrel will go much lower due to all the collateral damages in the world. Bush said he knew IRAQ had WMD, the WMD are in the U.S (to be clear, the Bernanke's, Paulson's but more importantly the Greenspan legacy).
U.S will implode at one time or another, the markets are telling you this now and will be telling you in the weeks to come.
I agree, $3.20 could be a good starting point to get in HOU for someone wanting a LT position, because of course, we will spike up a few times before reaching rock bottom. It will get better though, by how much again, I have no crystal ball. IF we do fall as low as $25, I will jump in with both feet. Remember, it was illogical at that point in time in history to reach $147..............it can also be illogical to reach $25, but since $147 happened, so can $25...........
Happy Investing and keep up the good posting and sanity in your posts.