U.S. oil demand to grow 1 million bpd by 2030: EIAWASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. oil demand is expected to grow only 1million barrels per day, or 0.2 percent, over the next two decades, ashigher vehicle fuel standards and increased use of renewable fuelsstifle petroleum consumption, the government's top energy forecastingagency said on Wednesday.
In its annual long-term forecast, the Energy InformationAdministration said this is the first time in more than 20 years theagency has projected virtually no growth in U.S. oil consumption.
"U.S. oil use remains near its present level through 2030 as modestgrowth in overall liquids demand is met by biofuels," the agency said.
Total demand for marketed renewable fuels, including ethanol andbiodiesel, is forecast to grow by 3.3 percent per year until 2030 dueto the federal renewable fuel standard and state requirements forutilities to generate more of their electricity from renewable sources.
The agency also anticipates a sharp increase in the sales ofvehicles with unconventional technologies such as flex-fuel and hybridvehicles, while new light truck sales are expected to make upsignificantly less of total light duty vehicle sales.
Overall hybrid vehicle sales are expected to rise to 38 percent ofnew light duty vehicle sales in 2030 from 2 percent in 2007, the EIAsaid.
In addition, plug-in electric hybrid vehicle sales, boosted by taxcredits, are expected to climb to 90,000 vehicles annually and 2percent of new light vehicle sales by 2030.
Despite the growth in alternative energy use, the EIA said coal,oil, and natural gas will still meet 79 percent of total U.S. primaryenergy supply requirements in 2030, down from 85 percent in 2007.
U.S. oil prices will rise from an average in 2009 of around $60 perbarrel in 2007 dollars to $130 a barrel in 2030 ($189 in nominaldollars), the EIA said.
The higher world oil price "reflects tighter constraints on accessto low-cost oil supplies in a setting where the forces driving longterm demand in non-OECD countries remains as strong as previouslyexpected," the agency said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected toincrease its oil production 1 percent to 42.1 million barrels per dayin 2030 from 33.68 million bpd in 2007, the EIA said.
Highlights of the EIA's long-term forecast include:
* Total domestic production of natural gas is projected to reach23.7 trillion cubic feet by 2030, with onshore unconventional naturalgas increasing from 9.2 tcf in 2007 to 13.2 tcf in 2030.
* Natural gas will make up 19 to 22 percent of electricity generation through 2030.
* U.S. energy related carbon dioxide emissions will grow 0.3 percentper year from 2007 to 2030, rising to 6,410 million tonnes in 2030.
* U.S. oil production rises from 5.1 million bpd in 2006 to 7.38 million bpd in 2030, spurred by higher oil prices.