GREY:ROAOF - Post by User
Comment by
Resilienceon Jan 18, 2009 4:37am
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Post# 15711940
Solid figures - have a read
Solid figures - have a read
Take Zdat's wellinton west report - thanks Zdat.
Under distressed ''Firesale", my calculation are as follows:
- Producing + Shelley is 50.4 mmboe @ a price of $ 10 gives $ 504
- West estimates in 2008 2p has moved up to 80-110mmboe, let's take low case scenario = 80 mmboe - 50 from above gives another 30 MMboe I value that at $6 ( 1$ below ithaca's deal) = $ 180
- Rest Risked resources is 182.7MMboe-80 from above= 102.7 for that i take low end of west is 3 $ = 308
$504+$180+$308=$ 990 Net debt according to West is C$ 822 which at 0.8 conversion rate to $ is $658
$990-$658=$ 332 devided by 227.5 Fully Diluted shares = $ 1.46 - and funnily enough that was also the price of the stock at the time Wellington West issued it.
This leaves out:
- Any reduction of Debt
- Any value for the Unrisked resources which would make total MMboe come to 438.8.
- Any forward selling the administartion may do
- Any change current management may come with some bridge financing - giving the sale more time
I am buying next week.
R.