RE: Risk Reward for partnersWow analysis was done too quickly.
Reward to share 24.50 Billion market, probably keeping 50% or more of profit, so 12,25 billions (no taxes, only manufacturing cost to assume and sales and administrative charge). Excluding the expenses, you get 50% profit 30-35 for costs and you leave 15-20% to for TLN shareholder.
That partnership deal is actually quite generous for TLN shareholders... I know... rip off, imo, but all the last partnership deals were around that ball park figure.
Risk
Clinical risk- mitigated by Step by step milestone payments
Total invest is 130 millions for all 3
So another 1$ for 100$ ROI (ruff numbers - usually you have to do a NPV. You get to mitigate risk with conditional payment.
Partnership looks even more attractive than buyout. You can select not invest in the drug candidates you don't feel good about; either 4601, 232, or Shigamabs.
Signing off a partnership deal is a no brainer for me.
Right now, potential partners are just waiting for a trigger event. Either interim results are final results.
For TLN shareholder, partnering the best assets 232 for skin cancer and 4601 for brain cancer is something to be accepted and conceded.
But there is a consolation price.
232 has 2 other application - renal cancer and pancreatic
4601 has another application pancreatic cancer and all PBR wild type cancer; ovarian, collectoral, lung and breast cancer.
All these application could start at PII trial level and for pancreatic it's another orphan status disease....