3$ per share for TLN
Well, I have now updated my price target for TLN
I think 20% stake in Caprion is worth 60-70 Million
Caprion has a debt of 4.1 million payable to TLN
TLN has 12 Million in Cash.
Giving 20-30M value for Shigamabs, 4601 and 232
Lower end of valuation is 96 Millions or 3$ per share. Also within 5 years trend valuation.
This would be consistent with average biotech trend
https://www.currentpartnering.com/reports/1408
- 4% of M&A deals since 2003 have been valued at more than $500m, while 70% were for less than $100m. The average deal value for the five year period was $94m. Figures are based upon the 378 M&A deals during this period for which values were disclosed.
- Marketed products and technology access continue to be the key drivers of M&A. Of recent M&A deals, 46% have been founded upon targets with commercialized products, while 34% were geared to harness technology platforms.
- Cash is the main payment mechanism for M&A deals. Of the 50 most recent deals for which values are known, 54% were cash-only, while a further 18% were for cash and future milestone payments.
- M&A will be an important source of future company growth. 45% of respondents to a proprietary Business Insights survey expect over 20% of their company’s future growth to stem from M&A.
Conclusion : TLN acquisition would be a strategic fit for a pharma wanting to expand in oncology for a small budget.
Blockbuster niche market (brain, skin cancer).
Caprion is a technology platform (going to be the biggest Biomarker player by 2012)
TLN valuation at 3$ is within trend.
Caprion generating profit and could be sold for 60-70M
20-30 M for 4601 + 232 + Shigamabs alone is equal to other biotech stock
3$ is now what all shareholders should aim for. Nothing less please!!! 3$