RE: E-trade + 15 rules for DUMDUMHere are 15 rules, techniques and observations to improve your tape-reading skills.
1. Traders spend a fortune accessing market depth through Level II, Nasdaq's TotalView service and NYSE OpenBook, but you can read the tape very well with a simple display that shows only the last price and bid-ask spread. This summary information resolves winners and losers at each turn.
2. Level II tracks short-term market pressures that don't predict the future, regardless of all the hype attached to this stock quotation tool. Most large buy and sell orders are hidden from this screen by clever stock exchange and electronic communication network (ECN) loopholes.
3. Forget about the outside order flow and focus all of your attention on the inside market. The time and sales ticker presents this information in a simple linear format.
4. Here are two key observations that guide all tape-readers. First, professionals move markets in whatever direction yields the greatest volume. Second, the most basic order flow manipulates price against crowd emotions.
5. Many specialists and market makers keep one eye on the charts and the other on cross-market forces. They push prices through support and resistance levels to test the waters and see how much greed or fear they can generate with the public.
6. Filter the tape's message through TICK (a short-term indicator that tracks bullish and bearish activity in NYSE stocks throughout the day), market breadth and the indices. Measure convergence-divergence between indices and the tape's order flow. Time and sales on individual stocks should pick up as they respond to index breakouts or breakdowns.
7. A strong tape rings a very loud bell in a weak market, and vice versa.
8. Greed and fear reveal themselves through rapid bursts of activity on the ticker tape. Look for nervous prints above the ask during breakouts and desperate prints below the bid during breakdowns.
9. Most bid and ask movement emits noise and doesn't predict price direction. But an expanding bid-ask spread after a sharp move in either direction signals an impending reversal, because it's cleaning out the last stops.
10. When strength meets weakness, look for price to break through the weak direction. Watch for a standoff when both sides show similar commitment.
11. Battles can rage for days at key price levels. Assume every level will break at least once, to suck in more volume. Decide whether the bulls or bears show more commitment by watching how they respond when levels break. That should be the winning side.
12. The spread widens in volatile markets, with price surging farther on fewer shares. Use wide spreads to exit positions with limit orders well above the ask or below the bid. This stretch mechanism provides a good part of the dynamics your profits depend upon.
13. No two stocks trade alike on the tape. Observe ticker movement and check out risk characteristics before taking a position. Look for depth of participation and which market players spend the most time at the inside market.
14. The size of available shares on the tape is a lie; the order flow tells the truth. Watch closely to see how much volume actually executes at each price level. This exposes hidden players who will eventually move that stock's price.
15. Consider the fish you're swimming with at the time. Most volume comes from scalpers and computer programs that push price around for a few pennies. Tape-readers spend most of their time searching for the whales hiding under these minnows.