past calcs and Slippage ........................Actually Big Money that 1.056 (oil today 34.75ish) pre-rollback is inaccurate
below see Part of a post I made on Dec26:
"
Wed Dec24 bnn - R Croft suggests buy HOU at 1.70 ish ( ie 8.85 ish after R/B )
so that is from 1.95 ( Dec24) to 1.70 or down 12.8% still
now $WTIC is (Feb) 35.35 on Dec 24 (-updated end of day only )
at
www.stockcharts.com ( try Gallery view - no indication of a bottom)
I finally notice this is the FEB contract ,
( actually some form of "continuous contract"?- blended)
not spot ( does a true spot today price exist?)
so $WTIC spot down 6.4% is $35.35 x 0.936 = $ 33.08 (ie R C guess)
Opps that is on that late drop ,
R C may have been thinking from about $37 earlier in the day.
(I think $WTIC can touch $29 - 31 ( or worse?) and CNBC says even lower)
so say $30 is down another 15% so HOU could drop another 30% = 1.36 or 6.82 Ouch ( say 7.10)
"
-- FEB 12
So note that $30 oil would have been about 6.82 or 1.36 at that time
Yet today $35 oil is 5.48 new or 1.09 old
( so $30 oil would be even lower for HOU )
The difference is the SLIPPAGE due to the constant daily resets
( and OK OK , some the contract rollover/rebalancing)
for past 5+ weeks , after the rollback.
You have divided it out based on today's numbers
If you guys read and post so much here how come you haven't figured that( slippage) out
since it has been mentioned so often?
In effect ( per above old post ) I have been waiting for oil to dip to 34ish in any case.
Been considering finally entering for day trades for last few days but pattern is erratic and tough to do
and you have to be right on the live feed , to speculate
Regards