BetaPro Crude Oil Inverse Leveraged Daily Bear ETF T.HOD

Alternate Symbol(s): HBTPF

ng of shareholders on July 2, 2020 (see Recent Developments). HOD's investment objective, which became effective at the close of business on July 9, 2020, is to seek daily investment resHOD's investment objective was changed after gaining approval at a meetiults, before fees, expenses, distributions, brokerage commissions and other transaction costs, that endeavour to correspond to up to two times (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Horizons Crude Oil Rolling Futures Index (the Underlying Index, Bloomberg ticker: CMDYCLER). HOD is denominated in Canadian dollars. Any U.S. dollar gains or losses as a result of the ETFs investment are hedged back to the Canadian dollar to the best of its ability. In order to achieve this objective, the total underlying notional value of these instruments and/or securities will typically not exceed two times the total assets of the ETF. As such, HOD employs absolute leverage.

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BetaPro Crude Oil Inverse Leveraged Daily Bear ETF

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Post by Kooleron Feb 18, 2009 7:57am

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Post# 15785723

How low can crude oil go?

For those of you that didn't read this Olney article, this is interesting stats. Not likely to happen but you never know.
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Tuesday, February 17, 2009

How low can crude oil go?

I am not a big fan of establishing price targets as you will most likely end up wrong in the end. We did have a vote last week where the majority chose $30.00 per BBL as a bottom. I published last month a study of major bottoms in crude oil (click link to view). To understand where we are today, we must create a way to perform a historical comparison to previous bear markets.SoI established ratios for the S&P500 index value divided by the price of crude oil per BBL from previous bear markets. So if the S&P500 index value is 800 and the price of crude oil is 40 then the ratio is 20 (800/40=20). During previous bear markets we had the following ratios:

1991 High 20
1994 High 34
1999 High 105
2002 High 65
2007 High 27.50
2009 High 25

You can see that our ratio for 2009 at 25 is one of the lowest ratios in comparison to previous bear markets. The highest ratio is 105 set in 1999. Taking todays S&P500 price of 785 divided by 100 gives a hypothetical price of 7.85BBL. In 2002 the ratio was 65 which would give us a price of about $12 per BBL using todays S&P500 value. Some of you might be thinking that $7.85 to $12 per BBL of oil is not possible. Well it has happened before (twice last 10 years), so it is possible that it could happen again. With record high crude oil inventories, and demand destruction the set up is here for making another historic low in crude oil prices.

The S&P500 is overvalued here. Some of you may be thinking its down over 50% how could it be overvalued? Well, earnings have decreased over 80%. It is the government intervention that has prevented the market from realizing or decreasing to its true value. I believe 80% off the top on the S&P 500 takes us to about 400. If S&P 500 goes to 400 then oil is going to the single digits. Click this link to view Carl Swenlins Analysis.

There is no reward in picking bottoms. We just continue to ride the trend to the end. We will know when crude oil bottoms, the charts will tell us, the EIA inventories will tell us, the commercials will cover their 119M BBL short position and price will tell us. Believe me, I can not wait to establish long positions in crude oil however now is not the time.