Some thoughts on the # of shares tradedI just wanted to provide my view on the numbers being thrown around here and correct a few points as follows:
First, there have been over 66 million shares traded on the Toronto and New York markets since they announce the offer yesterday. That volume is approx. 80% of the shares outstanding. Part of those trades were the shorters (say 8 -9 million based on the globe and mail article that I posted earlier) and then the hedge funds were probably buying up large chunks as well. BUT that still leaves a lot of shares to be purchased by IPIC after the announced offer.
Second, there were a lot of shares traded in the days leading up to the offer. IPIC is allowed to buy up to 10% before the offer is announced and they would have been crazy not to do exactly that... especially at $1.3 US per share versus paying $6 later.
Third ,66% of the shareholders (assume voting shareholders) are required to to support this deal. Between the management who have supported the deal and the shares that have been purchased before and after the announcement you would think that IPIC has likely got a very good grip on this deal. Put yourselves in their position; if this is a steal which we all think it is then they will likely gather up the controlling number of shares before the required voting date. Remember that these guys have deep pockets.
Fourth, the news releases that I have seen (at least here in Calgary) state that the boys want to have this deal close in April. To me that means we may never see the 1st QTR results as most companies take several weeks to generate their quarterly results and if those numbers are available after the vote then only IPIC will see them as they are a private company.
I am not happy to see Nova Chem go to an offshore buyer but as long as they grow the company and the jobs of the current employees are protected at least we will happy for that.
5Wood