RE: Still evidentI agree with you entirely about the overhang. With approximately 10M shares to be dispositioned we have a large headwind we're sailing into. That is the biggest problem NGG faces share price wise. But I think second or third on the list (behind the need for successive quarters of positive cash flow) is investor confidence in management.
I want to try and illustrate how close to you the company got to sinking. As you know, Bob McNeil (NGG's CEO) is also the CEO of MacMin Silver. Here's some of what he had to say recently to MacMin shareholders in October:
On the 23 Oct 08 he reported on the 2008 and 2009 production figures for Twin Hills (MacMin's #1 mine). In the release he gave the caveats of: "The above projections are based on both the Crushing Circuit upgrade study and increased shifts, and could vary depending on the crushing upgrade performance" and "Approximately $AUD1.2 million in additional capital is required to expand the Merrill Crowe silver recovery facility and purchase a standby jaw crusher."
https://www.macmin.com.au/announcements/2008/pdf/ASXReleaseTwinHillsProductionForecast23Oct08.pdf
10 Days later the company was handed over to administrators because "The delay in supply and commissioning of additional crushing capacity, and the slower than predicted leaching rate have meant that the mine consumed more working capital than anticipated."
https://www.macmin.com.au/announcements/2008/pdf/ASX%20Release%20Appt%20of%20Administrators%2003Nov08.pdf
Does any of this sound familiar? It's the same stuff we have heard out of McNeil and IR for NGG. This is the reason NGG's executives make me nervous. Just recently we were in exactly the same situation as MacMin - out of cash very close folding. Any further obstacles in our way and we could end up at the financiers again with significant dilution or worse.
Here's a couple of recent releases for NGG:
"These figures remain achievable provided the process upgrade can be completed as scheduled by end of first quarter 2009. These figures remain achievable provided the process upgrade can be completed as scheduled by end of first quarter 2009"
https://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/090114/200901140506321001.html?.v=1
"Because of slower leaching we have revised down our forecast production for the December 2008 quarter to 4,500 ozs gold, but 7,500 ozs may still be achievable in the March quarter."
https://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/081023/200810230493086001.html?.v=1
And remember Forbes told each and every one of you who called that NGG had more than enough cash to successfully reach target production levels, remember?
Yes this is all doomsday stuff, and no, I do not think it will happen. But consider that NGG originally promised to begin gold production in Q2 2006 and achieve 35,000 Oz in 12 months. One month from now that will be a 3-year miss.
22 Feb 2006: "Development of a gold mining operation is underway at Sinivit and is expected to be completed by the end of the second quarter. Gold production is scheduled to begin at that time." and "approximately 35,000 ozs of gold will be produced in the first year of production"
https://www.newguineagold.ca/announcements/2006/PressReleases2006.html#jan31
So what am I rambling about? Investor confidence. Confidence is sapped - that's why it's taking so long to cross 3MM worth of stock in a gold miner...