RE: Odds and endsrjc,
Excellent post. Covers a lot of ground but very instructive for those new to BIO investing/SSS in particular.
I have been pondering the black-hole of where the FDA might be in deciding when or if we would be given approval to re-start.
I agree with your thoughts, which you've presented clearly, as usual. One event that I feel might inform this FDA quandry is the fact of TTH selling their whole stake. Not to say that TTH have any access to insider info, or even to the body language, from either SCT or the FDA but I consider that when TTH goes through the sort of analysis that you have done, they can bring all of their expert opinions to determining the probabalities about when and if FDA will give the go ahead. Assuming they can thus arrive at a higher level of confidence than we, mere investors, can muster I've concluded that they assessed the probability as relatively low, thus deciding to sell when they did.
They did wait until they could sell into a rising market, but I'm certain if they had a high probability of neart-term approval, coupled with the fact they must have been able to predict the positive impact on Stem-cell industry by the widely telegraphed Obama direction, they would have waited this 'short while' and made much more from their shares.
Regardless of this speculation I hope that 'something' positive will give us a big boost sooner than later. The 50% drop we suffered six months ago was said to be undeserved, but the longer it continues the more likely it's to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
GLTL
MM