REAL STORY -- STAY FOCUSED IMOShort Story: Gold on trend to move much higher, HRG looks ready to move as well. Do not get focused on nonsense of short term fluctuations and babble talk from all the regular sources.IMO If you can call all the short term gyrations, great. Try it! Otherwise get real focused on the unfolding big story.IMO We are on the verge folks of deciding how the next decades unfold, and it does not, unfortunately, look promising.IMO
Of course, like some/many, I read most of the stuff being said these days, keep my mind open, but I do notice a tell tale warning sign worth noting.IMO
Whether its Kitco or Babble on TV, the prognostications on gold change from day to day. Some patterns though. They almost ALL focus, in the end on the very short term, and DO NOT ADDRESS the REAL ISSUE with respect to the U.S. Dollar or Gold.IMO So one day they are saying gold is going to 1200 within 90 days, next it is going to settle back, or this or that is happening and this will be the consequence. Today the peasants are selling their rings in India or Turkey. This or that happened over the last 30 days, so the price forcasts change. How accurate have they been to date, it is a valid question. My opinion. Piss poor. Largely sheep like calls, after the fact. Sort of like the guy from Scotia on HRG to date.That is just for starters.
The more important issue is what is really next for gold, and what are the chances of it happening.
I say: GOLD WAY HIGHER. Here is why..
If you listen carefully and watch the current bail outs, loans, debts being accumulated, and future obligations of the U.S. there is NOT A SINGLE EXPLANATION as to how they are EVER going to pay them back. This, when the Baby Boomer Generation is about to put HUGE demands on the system on top of all the recent events, or are some forgetting about this, and it now is within 5 YEARS, just when they are claiming they will start to have surpluses and pay backs? Sure they will!
So how do they pay back all this and keep the system afloat? They HAVE TO HAVE INFLATION. Not maybe, not even probably, they have to, because the percentages simply do not add up, nor do the ratios, nor the expected revenues NO MATTER what scenario you hope for.IMO If you think so, try and do so, even on the most basic of premises. Like where does the money get generated? Where is the growth if any, in the U.S. or emerging countries. What you see is pretty basic. They have ALREADY realized this, and are opting for inflation over deflation. So do they pull it off, and more, does it matter to gold. ONLY matters if you are trying to trade and catch the short term moves. It is basically cast in stone now.IMO
Why? Inflation: ALL currencies appear ready to race down in value. Can you name even ONE that is an exception. When you see a country like the U.S. taking on the largest debts EVER known, and people think it is strong, it should be telling you something. When you see the government involved in Banks, Auto, Insurance, and other mitigations, think about it. And at the same time the basic engine that drives the revenues, the U.S. economy is looking weaker long term, not stronger. It WAS JUST through its biggest growth, booming economy and look at the debt levels BEFORE this mess!!!!! Just review their industries if you are in doubt. So at some time, just like what has happened to date, ALL this comes home and there is no simple fix. What do they do then. Easiest is to borrow now, go into massive debt, and create inflation which reduces in REAL terms what ever gets paid back. This is what EVERY investor should examine objectively, and question when the pundits, the TV Babble crew keep trying to see a rosy ending here. It is not about corrections, stock market averages, trend lines, resistance points, the nominal value of gold, it is about whether this picture is accurate, and if it is, then gold goes way higher and protects your purchasing power, from many and most any attacks. IMO
But say they do not pull off this act, and we get 1930's style deflation. What exactly do you own that will maintain value??? Your bank account? Which bank, and where does the money come from to pay you back? You think they can just print it without inflation??? Its bankruptcy, repudiation or inflation. Take your pick.IMO Need I say anything about the value of most Stocks? Bonds? or Real Estate. What exactly, that you can ACTUALLY hold and collect on, will maintain value, on a practical level if there is massive deflation? And more importantly, in case you still do not get it, ask HOW the government could pay back even the interest on what they have borrowed already if they have massive deflation???
So I say think about the REAL issues when you are listening to the day to day babble, and ask repeatedly, not accepting nonsense skirting the issue answers, until you hear an actual answer, what the outcomes are likely to be, and based on what exactly. We may like the new president, he may well be the greatest thing and sincere, honest etc etc. But faith alone, trust alone, WILL NOT, necessarily do more than make folks feel good, and maybe yes, help push folks into taking good actions and refocusing. But still, it seems beyond them to remedy the house of cards, given its current structure.IMO I sincerey hope I am wrong about this. But show me a clear, plausible solution put forward by anyone, that seems likely of being undertaken, and then I will reconsider.
Result; a big ongoing mess.AND WORLDWIDE IMO Gold it gets way stronger, but with lots of fluctuations as the games get played out on the try to survive schemes. Dollar, it eventually sinks like the proverbial stone.
SOME Mining issues which produce gold, make fortunes for a few. HRG, maybe is one little one that times it perfectly, to emerge into such a scenario, whether by luck or plan.
Whatever you believe: consider how this unfolding picture will effect you, if it occurs. If you do not think it will, ask yourself seriously why??? That will be a sobering process, because, I defy anyone to come up with a scenario where the U.S. re emerges out of this stronger and without a great deal more pain, and hits one of these choices.
Do two things as well, when you are losing focus: look at TEN YEAR Chart of gold. Look at same for Dow Jones. Ask why they look like they do, and has ANYTHING changed to fix it???