Say you prove to be correct....Short Story: YOU BUY NOW - IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR THEORY!
You ask what can be done. Well lets see, the market has been going down, including pretty well everything bar a few exceptions owing to special circumstances, or deals. Here we have your dd indicating to you, that perhaps the most likely thing that Severstal is going to do, is make an offer, what variously 25-50% above some price average. Have I got that right? So say it is .15 average, for example, and they offer .20. What can we do????
Well this is where objectivity comes into play. IF you really believe that is the case, and you buy or invest on your own beliefs, then I would be buying of course. Where exactly are you seeing 25-50% potential gains within a short time frame, and based on what you believe is a poor outcome. Which has been my point ALL along of late. Anything can happen, BUT, take note, that even here, this "bad" outcome, is calling for a substantial premium over today's price. Where are you seeing that of late! Let us all know, as I did with Geron.
You can review the past all day long. You can moan, cry, scream or rant here, but the past is gone. Ask folks at those prime, grade A big caps like GM,GE, Citi, Google at 500+, Microsoft, or maybe even a Kinross at $27. You know, the stuff that the TV guys, the analysts, the mutual fund guys,said should be held by the public as long term investments, and are now back in some/many cases at 20 year lows. What should they do???? What can they do??? Tell them there is an offer coming 25-40 % higher most likely. Or is it 25-50% lower instead???
The point: If you see a situation where the choices seem slanted in favour of an imminent MINIMUM 25-50% GAIN, and if wrong, maybe MUCH MORE, then what you do is TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT. Could have, would have, should have, will apply if not, should you be right, and play it wrong.IMO
I can see Severstal doing one of many things, but I repeat, they would be purely dumb, in my opinion, themselves to overthink this situation. They can make more money, more quickly, and hedge their exposure to the Ruble, by simply using the existing vehicle, and getting a plan out that shows a route to higher cash flows, increasing production etc. Who wants a Russian listing in Rubles??? And do they think they are immune to the ever changing whims of Russian politics. Nice to have a hedge.IMO Rolling it in will not give them any leverage.IMO But, hey, that is the way I see it. However, would I part with an investment at this juncture that looks to go up shortly, a good percentage, and maybe a huge percentage??? Even given your worst case? NO.
So BUY is the answer, as to what a smart person would do. That is, IF they buy your scenario or any such that drives the price higher. It does NOT get much more basic in investing than this. However, because people mix up the past and present, sometimes they lose sight of the obvious. Just like Geron. I tried to explain this very briefly on March 1, here on this board. When folks buy an issue for $6.60 and a week later the stock is trading at $4, all things being the same, with news that was pending, according to many who follow the situation still not out, then you buy. Especially when I have followed this particular stock/technology for years and know the potential. Odds are, unless you think the buyers are crazy, something will move the stock up and over the issue price, or at least close to it. And then you look and see an unfolding probably scenario about to occur- President to change legislation to favour this area, so you have a probable senario for an increase in share price, EVEN if temporary. Sound familiar: HRG who bought at .20? Wasn't it Severstal? Have things gotten better or worse? Gold price UP, Costs DOWN, issues being addressed, and no promotion. Uh What comes next? Do I sell at .15 or thereabouts as a few impatient sell, and the patient and smart accumulate, and miss a probable double digit gain ??? Not me. I accumulate on weakness, and see what I get. That is what smart money does, in a situation like this. IMO? If the gain is not hundreds of a percent. Boo hoo, I move on AFTER taking the gain I get. Of course I could have been in GM or the like, and what is their future looking like? There are lots of deals and stocks that will have special circumstances, EVEN in the worst markets. This looks like one of them to me, at this juncture. Hope you are not correct and the stock moves back up to over a dollar, but if not, then I will see what happens.
Read your post again. You answer your own question? You buy and make some money.IMO