RE: FNV bid?
Dferg,
Good to see you around. I am thinking the same thing about Franco Nevada. And there must be some
other royalty companies that I am not familiar with who are watching this situation and looking for a bargain opportunity, which is what this is.
Yesterday I wrote:
"The possibility of a new bidder is obviously also a free lottery ticket for Silverstone shareholders. In this regard the point I want to make to everyone is that the possibility of a new bidder is a strong reason not to sell any Silverstone shares. You don't think another bidder is likely? Several weeks ago I raised the possibility that sudden heavy trading volume in Silverstone suggested that a bid was coming, and nobody believed me then. I am doing the
math, and asking myself, if I was Franco Nevada, what would I do. My conclusion is that if I was Franco Nevada I would jump all over Silverstone with an offer over $2.00 ($2.50 perhaps, for starters, in cash or shares?). It's the logical thing to do. They may not do the logical thing, but I am expecting that it's in the enlightened self interest of Franco to make an offer, and that's good for us Silverstone shareholders."
I keep thinking that it would be stupid for Franco Nevada
not to make an offer. Which means that they probably
will make an offer. (I know this logic looks simplistic; we will see if it proves to be correct!) If I was Franco I would wait first to see if it looks like either Silver Wheaton improves their purchase formula,
or if another bidder enters the situation.
THEN I would make a higher bid. My guess is it is in Franco's interests to wait it out a little bit - a week or two perhaps. This is like a poker game, and the game can change at any time for the better. Who is going to blink first? Like I said before,
Silverstone is like a free lottery ticket. Wheaton has set the floor for the stock price, but not the ceiling for the stock price. With the Silverstone price already at $1.87, and with the analyst price target for Wheaton much higher, it is hard to imagine Silverstone
not going to over $2.50 relatively soon, somehow or another.
tooclassy
PS: Let's step back a little..the stock has gone from about $1.00 to $1.87 in 8 trading days. Nice. Aren't we having fun yet?.