TSXV:KUR.H - Post by User
Comment by
Crotchon Mar 24, 2009 3:21pm
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Post# 15866852
RE: RE: RE: China Pushes For Global Currency...
RE: RE: RE: China Pushes For Global Currency...It goes to show that the world is not liking this US dollar thing..
We have to start trying to figure out how it will all play out...
The simplest way would be to increase the Euro's share of reserve curreny holdings at the expense of the dollar - instead of creating a global currency. It would be easier, and a helluva lot more cost effective.
Keep in mind.. Opec as a whole could decide tomorrow to sell Oil in a currency other tha the US dollar.. such as the euro...
Unlikely. As long as the US continues to get 50+% of it's oil from OPEC, this probably won't happen. If OPEC can phase out exports to the US, then I see it becoming a more likely option - but in order for that to happen you will have to see a significant decline in US demand, and a significant increase in demand from someone else - likely China. The problem with China is that it's economy is too closely tied with the US, and to further complicate their energy market - oil/fuel is subsidised by the government. When the price of oil went up last year, China was forced to cut the subsidies, which further eroded demand in that country...not the most stable market as far as energy is concerned. Same goes for India. Two countries, with the largest populations - and both of them are probably the most susceptible to an economic crisis.
The US and Europe will probably always be OPEC's best customers.
You also have to remember who controls the IMF. Will they be willing to prop up a currency specifically designed to lessen the reliance on the US dollar, or the Euro for that matter? Could be...
THe west may not have the same kind of control it thinks it does..
Just look how much influence the housing crisis had on the rest of world. If the US influence was/is waning, why the dramatic impact to Europe and Asia. Maybe China does not have the same kind of control it thinks it does...it works both ways, and I think for the near future, the US will be holding the Ace in the hole.
And don't think for a second Americas so caled friends.. such as China and the Sauds etc don't want to drive that series of nails into them... include Russia in that.
As long as the Saudi's want US military Aid, US dollars, and the ability to invest in US business this won't happen either. China is a paper tiger...and Russia is embarking on a massive re-armament of their military - hmmm, isn't that what sunk the Soviets the last time they tried this. Russia of all countries has to be accutely aware of the precarious position she's in. Poor poor Russia...might as well be in the same league as the Arabs, for all they have offer.
Its a play for power.. not effective commerce.. although after this US led meltdown developing an alternative willl hold water worldwide.
It's always about power. On the surface you'll see plenty of calls for financial reform - and for the most part it'll come from the fringe, or from China. As I said - good luck with that. It won't happen - at least not any time soon.