RE: RE: AGMI attended. Overall the meeting went well. Same old as far as the presentation, but some really good questions.
Summary:
-Envious cash position
-Looking for partner for Non-US HIV Lipo which should account for the approx same overall combined market size as US
-Partnering has reduced the commercialization risk significantly--best bottomline value since risk is borne by partner
-Delay in NDA is because Serono convinced TH to include 52 week PIII data in hopes of having a broader monograph for chronic (long-term) use---submission was originally prepped and ready to go based on 26 week data
-Key to NDA isn't FDA but payers in the US (i.e. insurance) so need to get it right the first time
-Only other competitor in this space was Serono before their product was rejected, so they have a strong vested interest in success
-IP protection til 2023
-Emphasis that obesity trial in Boston is related to growth hormone for morbid obesity--not the common epidemic that has struck the US. I believe the market estimate for the former was around $1M. that said, we all known that off-label (which they skirted around) is huge and could be used for the latter population
-Focus is on NDA and maximizing 1st indication, then second indication, pipeline etc.
-All the second indication estimates have larger markets than 1st indication
-want to maximize company value in the short term to increase cash and in case a hostile offer is made---no poison pill is in place and no restrictions on deal with Serono
-no single large holder, though several institutions in the US
-still consider Nasdaq listing for US exposure, but not in current environment since: 1) will cost about $2M annualy incl insurance (D&O) costs 2) will have to issue shares and at the current sub $2 level
My overall take: those who have bought at higher levels may want to double down. If Serono or another pharma isn't already buying, the risk of being taken out is high. Future prospects are good and risk is minimal--especially with a partner bearing the commercialization risk. Serono very experienced in this space and has the contacts. My avg price is about $3.50, so even at a 50% premium on todays price, I wouldn't breakeven
...as Bioracle would say: f&^%ing hedge funds and manipulators
GLTA.
IFC