Sweet Deal...I have to disagree with those that think institutional investors are unhappy. Quite the contrary. Those who know the business best (and CEO Michael Wilson is one of them) are trying to seize the opportunity of a lifetime to purchase such valuable assets at the bottom of the cycle. It's the trading folks who are playing the fears of the weak hands as well as the arbitragers who are adding to the negative feel of this deal. Of course, you have shorts trying to make a quick buck also but that will change. This is the only sector that has sound fundamentals regardless of the credit crisis that has clobbered the market and brought the good companies down as well as the bad (in stock price at least).
I would not be surprised if this deal finally gets done at a price of one AGU share plus $40 (us) cash (I hope it's not higher) which, assuming AGU stock is at $45 (us) by that time, would make the deal worth $85 (us). A nice compromise since CF is looking for $100 (us) which Michael Wilson has flatly rejected.
If AGU cracks the $40 (us) threshold (around $50 Canadian) we could see a very quick rise to the $56 Canadian range since there has been a major washout of the weak hands already. Don't be too surprised...this is a sweet deal.