RE: RE: Opinions are vast and varried.....re a takeover:
keep in mind the dual share structure, so really there is nothing to talk about unless the keevils' hands are forced. So until they publicly declare otherwise there will be no bidding war. They have absolute veto power over the company. a hostile bid is out of the question.
Not to mention the anti trust / competition issues. combining bhp and teck would create an entity with virtual control of the coking coal seaborne marekts, at well over half the supply in that market in the world. its doubtful this would be allowed to happen by the regulatory authorities.
to me this is nothing more than market hype. traders eat up this kind of crap, but if there really were any serious talks, then the keevils would declare an open bidding process and publicly open the data room
Further to this, the proof to me that this is simply not the case, are all these little piss ant transactions that are doing sweet FA for the debt, and 1% of the debtload per transaction, and are selling at fractions of a "long term" value.
If BHP were in fact coming to the table with a couple BLN to save the day, why would teck be partaking in these meaningless, and value destroying deals. it would be like having a garage sale to make mtg payments a couple days before getting a massive inheritance.
It just doesnt add up - The andacollo deal ruins the natural hedge, and reduces the value of the property by much more than the face value of the transaction.
I think it may even be teck its self that is starting the rumours. think about it. they are in negotiations with the coking coal clients, and they start this rumour, that would give one company price setting authority through an potential oligopoly, and scare the pants off all the asian steel mills they are dealing with to get a price of coal that would eliminate tecks risks in the short term, say 10-20 more than bhp has settled for. this would not be out of the question, as the price last year teck got for example was 30 less than bhp, even eth EVCC coal being of the highest quality available
just my take on the takeover - I think its just spin, and nothing more.