going forwardi couldnt believe the crap audio quality of the conference call. If you have invested in this company, you should be upset when segments are inaudible. Anyways, in my opinion the jennings increased target of *90 cents is consistent with their conservative approach here. When i listened to the cc, i had a mixed reaction. On the one hand, we were all looking for another dose of "news" that would propel us up, and that obviously didnt happen. Oh well. However, what really struck me was how the analysts' questions were still sort of frightful, concerned about things that we collectively have long not discussed. Things that many of us have come to see as being "wrapped up" the analysts are still worried about. The PIA is the most striking example. Further, it is clear that there is still much to be negotiated and worked out regarding financing and equity raising issues. It struck me as being much less clear cut than they had previously communicated. The analysts' questions were often (usually) not met with clear cut answers, as often (usually) such answers were not really possible, given the circumstances. For the most part, such thoughts seem sort of negative, and i was indeed disappointed that we didnt hit it out of the park with some sort of announcement...although i did not really expect it.
However, there is another side to this. Each of the above doubts provides another catalyst. For example, the PIA is still doubted? well, when that passes parliament...another pop in sp. i hadnt thought about that. There are other doubts that out there, and when they are overcome, the sp should also react positively. Previously, i had actually only seen one more "arrow in their quiver" to give a nice pop in sp prior to raising equity (i.e. announcing debt financing). Now i see that i was wrong, there are other catalysts.
If anybody finds my comments somewhat persuasive, there are two other considerations: risk and time. In truth, i should not say that "when" the PIA passes X will happen...but, of course, i should say "if" it passes. Nothing is inevitable. The same goes for the intricacies in financing arrangements. Although i argued that the perceived uncertainties have created more potential catalysts, well they are also potential problems. So, i have a heightened feeling of risk in my MAA investment. Regarding time, well it looks like we might be looking at more of it. Hadnt they previously said that they wanted financing to be agreed upon by late april? plus, electoral timing could be a problem--things could be dragged out because of the elections. More time and risk.
Al in all, i see more potential gain and more risk...the fact that there are still doubts out there show increased upside. To be honest, the one big question i have is about management. i dont know what to think about them.