Possible Long-Term Scenario?IMO, this could be a possible long-term scenario explaining drawn-out low-volume selling by UBS and others.
Lifecycle Pharma (
https://www.lcpharma.com/) is developing a Generic version of Tacrolimus for Transplant (LCP-Tacro) which uses their Meltdose technology. They just completed a Phase 2 study (63 patients) and reported positive results and are gearing up for a Phase 3 submission later this year. Their objective is to compete against Prograf with a once-a-day formulation with improved bioavailability. They have an agreement with Sandoz (part of Novartis) and their trial design is to use LCP-Tacro/Cellcept (Roche).
This would appear to be a win-win strategy for Novartis/Roche to pick up additional business away from Astellas, particularily in the USA where the Prograf patent expired and Astellas has withdrawn their application with the FDA for their Prograf once-daily version (Agragraf). Also could co-exist with Cyclosporin, Cellcept/MMF sales. According to the LCP website they also have an undisclosed agreement with a top 10 (2006) large Pharma.
https://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=215658&p=irol-newsArticle_Print&ID=1282666&highlight=
IMO, only one problem, there is a small upstart company from Edmonton that could potentially skew these financials and market dynamics of Cyclosporin for Transplant/Psoriasis, make it harder market for Generic Prograf, and bite into Raptiva sales (at least prior to early this year). I'm sure other Pharma's don't necessarily look forward to a potential reduction in Biologic sales for Psoriasis if there is a next gen CNI competing with Cyclosporin, when they currently have Billion dollar markets today.
So what if Roche/Novartis decides that financials are better business with a Generic Tacro with Cellcept inhouse than with the product from a little company from Edmonton. So they decline partnership with ISA (save the money already set-aside in budget) and all they have to do is ensure that Voclosporin does not get to market or prolong the efforts. What is to stop Roche from also privately selling some ISA shares to Novartis and others in which could be sold off slowly/painfully in order to keep ISA at bay while Generic Tacro goes ahead towards commercialization. Certainly would explain long-term selling of ISA at a loss, since there is a different motive involved to ensure another market opportunity.
This was the last information for Sedi for Insider Information for Roche (7,385,908 shares). As far as I'm concerned it says 3-10% so there should be some accountability for what Roche has done with the shares (since opening balance) considering they were a trusted Insider. Although it says Roche Finance which would have been different party than Roche personnel dealing with ISA.
Insider name: Roche Finance Ltd
Insider's Relationship to Issuer: 3 - 10% Security Holder of Issuer Security designation: Common Shares
31695 2003-06-18 2003-06-27 Direct Ownership : 00 - Opening Balance-Initial
SEDI Report 7,385,908
Any comments?